Offtake and earnings

This thread has been created to drill down into offtake and earnings info and insights.

I believe a rare and innocent slip by Novonix has prematurely revealed the location of the new Greenfield facility. As Novonix's new facility is to be located next door to VW's huge production site in Chattanooga Tennessee - in the VW supplier park - we have a very strong idea of who has just signed (or will imminently sign) a huge offtake agreement with NVX. The VW offtake agreement - likely 30ktpa - will be the first of several very large offtake agreements.

Refer:
https://goo.gl/maps/WhtthztWaXrC1e3E7 (Ferdinand Piech Way)

Render of Greenfield released by Novonix:



Google maps satellite image of the new site in VW's supplier park:


Big blue is approx. 200m long and the new site and render indicate that Greenfield is approximately 500m long. It's also adjacent to a rail siding which is handy if you want to send freight to Georgia... for example. As NVX have stated they will both announce the location and break ground in the first half of 2023 we know that engineering design is complete and they have either signed a contract, or are in late-stage negotiations, with a head contractor to construct the facility. Novonix advertised and hired Chattanooga based construction PMs and PEs last year.

This is where Novonix ramps to 85ktpa total production which delivers insane earnings. There were countless breadcrumbs that lead as all to this point, I've list just a few below (please feel free to add more):
- NVX's consistent stated plan to co-locate Greenfield next to a tier-1 OEM/cell manufacturer.
- NVX revealing that Greenfield would be in Chattanooga.
- NVX referencing delivering anode to VW in Chattanooga for "illustrative purposes" in their decrease in global warming potential study (even NVX's heavy promotion of the aforementioned study aligns with European approach to lowering embodied energy in EVs)
- VW having a huge site next door to their existing factory sitting there vacant for their next one, after stating they will use synthetic anodes.
- VW stating they will have one or two of their six planned giga factories in North America.
- VW consistently stating how it makes sense to build their facatory near existing production facilities (Canada has also been mentioned).
- VW's US production targets aligning with 30ktpa of anode production from 2025 (assume 90kg graphite per vehicle).
- plenty more but they can be added in later posts.

I am aware that Novonix now know that the depth of public understanding of the VW relationship has increased. After the speeding ticket they received from the ASX after the gains immediately prior to the DoE announcement I'm certain they will be monitoring trading activity for spikes or uncharacteristically large trade volumes.

Quite a few folks have completed base, bull and bear case models for the SP once a binding offtake agreement is signed with finance in place. Additionally quite a few analysts have completed reports on Novonix with the average end of 2023 de-risked PT sitting around the AU$5 mark (e.g.
https://corporateconnect.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Novonix-report-final-22-pdf.pdf). $5 is fine, but it's chicken feed compared to the bear or base case 2025/26 price target.