Just as there was an initial green shoot catalyst they shorted...

Just as there was an initial green shoot catalyst they shorted on - REO price falls event then followed by more events ECE departure and financing timeline pushbacks we now are seeing reversal green shoots indeed of REO prices rising (and appear set to continue on the back of Chinese stimulus arriving and therefore stockpiling reserves activity occurs and the traditional stockpiling from closures of many production facilities around this time of year in which they carry out extensive maintenance to production hubs around the country) when the Chinese gov stipulate these closures to various factory - plant activities to celebrate NATIONAL DAY August 1 for a week in clearer skies/air. And of course the approaching timelines advised in recently released quarterly and annual reports. I still remain hopeful as previous stated final offtakes in September that will provide time to conclude finance by EOY as advised. The offtakes advised will be a clear guideline where the finance is arriving from which certainly appears ECA'A of Germany and Canada along with Hyundai possibly and Aus Gov x 2 - I can not dismiss US or India or an increase to production. Very interesting situation for management in a very complex financing situation.

I think BBB is on target with around 7% interest terms when looking at Iluka's finance terms from Aus ECA it was BBSY + 3% equating to similar 7%.
I do however see current pricing levels still viable with so much upside of course over coming years which certainly appears largely positive amongst many unknowns - but as seen with Lynas - well - say no more - once we get to max run rate - pricing - MINHUB - external feed etc etc.

It is worth looking at Iluka reporting - they have announced FID - stated risks involved (no tech IP but will draw on extensive mineral sands production and separation expertise but a far cry from reo refining - separation tech) and they are I think at FEED stage due to close later this year and production of 4000T of PrNd at full capacity from a stockpile of high grade tailings which will last 9 years. Very interesting is their comment of their desire to "pricing approaches independent of traditional indices" - of course we all are aware of what that means and ARU will do the same in the future after initial offtake periods of 5-7 years expire - GE the company have stated are looking for long term offtake so we will know more soon there. A hell of a lot happening in these final hours of negotiations.