CAPITAL STRUCTURE:
Shares outstanding: 262 mill
Options (out of the money): 8 mill
Convertible notes (out of the money) [IE debt]: 153 million
Other interest bearing debt: 60 million
Cash: 194 mill
Market cap @ 2.37= 621mill
EV= 640mill
OPERATIONS:
Resource + reserve: 10 million ounces (exploration upside)
Operations split Macraes/ Frasers/ Reefton
Dipidio to be commisioned Q4 2012 (funding from cashflow, not capital markets)
Dipidio- game changer, negative cash costs with bi-product costing
EARNINGS:
Currently: 260000 ounces at US 650/ounce cash costs
FY 2011 estimates:
Assuming POG 1450
Operating margin: 800
Operating profit: 208,000,000
Less D&A: 60,000,000
(Capex will be almost all of surplus cashflow- so will be ignored).
Tax: 44,000,000
NPAT (USD): 104,000,000
At a 10% RR- gives value of 3.90/share = 3.65AUD
At 12% RR- gives 3.24/share = 3.04 AUD
End of FY2013, with Dipidio online and POG still at 1450 (with D&A approx 30 million) gives:
NPAT (USD): 185,000,000
10%RR value of 6.61AUD
12%RR value of 5.51AUD
Either way significant upside if Dipidio is delivered on time and on budget. This company has fantastic metrics, I am only waiting to see if they can maintain their low cash costs with rising input costs and USD inflation before sinking my teeth in. Good luck to all holders.
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- OGC
- ogc valuation
ogc valuation
-
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 10 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add OGC (ASX) to my watchlist
Currently unlisted public company.
The Watchlist
RCE
RECCE PHARMACEUTICALS LTD
James Graham / Dr Alan Dunton, MD & CEO / Non-Executive Director
James Graham / Dr Alan Dunton
MD & CEO / Non-Executive Director
SPONSORED BY The Market Online