CAPITAL STRUCTURE:Shares outstanding: 262 millOptions (out of...

CAPITAL STRUCTURE:

Shares outstanding: 262 mill
Options (out of the money): 8 mill

Convertible notes (out of the money) [IE debt]: 153 million
Other interest bearing debt: 60 million
Cash: 194 mill

Market cap @ 2.37= 621mill
EV= 640mill

OPERATIONS:
Resource + reserve: 10 million ounces (exploration upside)
Operations split Macraes/ Frasers/ Reefton
Dipidio to be commisioned Q4 2012 (funding from cashflow, not capital markets)
Dipidio- game changer, negative cash costs with bi-product costing

EARNINGS:
Currently: 260000 ounces at US 650/ounce cash costs

FY 2011 estimates:
Assuming POG 1450
Operating margin: 800
Operating profit: 208,000,000
Less D&A: 60,000,000
(Capex will be almost all of surplus cashflow- so will be ignored).
Tax: 44,000,000
NPAT (USD): 104,000,000

At a 10% RR- gives value of 3.90/share = 3.65AUD
At 12% RR- gives 3.24/share = 3.04 AUD

End of FY2013, with Dipidio online and POG still at 1450 (with D&A approx 30 million) gives:
NPAT (USD): 185,000,000

10%RR value of 6.61AUD
12%RR value of 5.51AUD

Either way significant upside if Dipidio is delivered on time and on budget. This company has fantastic metrics, I am only waiting to see if they can maintain their low cash costs with rising input costs and USD inflation before sinking my teeth in. Good luck to all holders.