OGX Chart, page-312

Just one last chart before I retire my interest in OGX to the bottom draw.  Below is a weekly chart of OGX.  The pink shaded area is the remaining gap from the daily chart down at the 2.5c to 2.6c level.  As somewhat of a present to LTH’s who do not use TA in their investment decisions I decided to post this chart.

  

The indicator shown on the chart is the WaveTrend (WT) momentum indicator.  A simple long term investment strategy would be to use this WT indicator combined with very simple rules like;

Buy when WT is oversold and moving up, and
Sell when WT is overbought and moving down;

I personally think that this would improve your long term investment decisions significantly.

As you can see, the OGX SP is now well and truly in the oversold area.  But how can we know whether a future move upwards is sustainable or not.  Watch for the momentum indicator to break upwards and then make an assessment of the force behind the move.  Volume will give you the correct answer.  I’ll be waiting for a signal like the one back on 29/12/2017.  Where the SP goes prior to this new signal, i.e. meander lower or higher, is of no interest to me anymore as a Non-Holder.

One other comment regarding Fundamental Analysis.  There are two aspects to FA.

The first is the Material/Process considerations, i.e. the amount of gold that is or could be present in the OGX tenements, and the viability of the process the company can use to extract the wealth from the tenements.  To a large extent these considerations are purely speculative until the company can report a JORC and an NPV for the project.  And of course a very important component of the NPV is the AISC.  Until these factors are determined an LTH’er must accept that there is significant risk in their investment.

The second is the Financial Fundamentals.  Generally there isn’t much discussion of this on HC threads.  To his credit Mr q*9 @qqqqqqqqq has been pointing out many of the financial risks associated with OGX over the past 6 months or so.  So what drives the financials; working capital, asset investment requirements in order to realise the process, AISC, debt, and of particular importance to shareholders, capital structure and dilution.  For me these consideration are far less speculative compared to the Material/Process considerations, and under no circumstances should they be ignored.

Wow, there are so many FA considerations that have to be taken in to account.  Lots of assumptions that have to be made and continually tested and reassessed.  To assess them correctly I would need knowledge in mining and financial analysis and I would have to incorporate an assessment of my own biases into the analysis – scheisse now I have to add psychology to that knowledge list as well.  But my simple weekly chart seems to have all the answers I need.  Yep, I’m convinced.  I’ll stick to my simple charts!

Good luck to the remaining OGX LTHs  -  Wilf

p.s. for anyone interested I can if requested post the pseudo-code for the WaveTrend indicator.