OGX Chart, page-351

It’s been quite a while since anyone has bothered posting an updated chart or some new TA on OGX so I thought I’d better post a chart and get the “OGX Chart” thread back up to the top of the thread list where it belongs.  No, only joking, what I really want to do is close off my little research project regarding the underlying CN/Magna strategy, and to come good with a promise that I made some time ago regarding letting people know when I see a possible base forming in the OGX price/volume action.

With the CN/Magna observations my only conclusion can be that my original concern regarding their strategy, i.e. convert CNs to shares and sell ASAP so as to achieve targeted 20% profit, is supported by the price action following each of the announced conversions.

Some time ago I commented that people should look for a very high Volume spike of greater than around 30 million shares in order to see the SP fall has stopped.  Well OGX got that spike on 22/11 at around 66 million shares (note this is ASX Volume only).  This volume spike was also on a candle that closed lower than the previous day.  This represents buying and possibly an end to the downslide.  What would be expected is that some lower volume testing of supply at slightly lower price levels would then occur.  This is happening now.  Have a look at the daily chart shown below, and the price-volume action from 26/11 and today.  It would appear that my BFS setup is now in play.  We have the ultra-high volume level in place and a medium term down sloping resistance line in place.  All we are waiting for now is a change in momentum to the upside followed by a break of the down trend resistance line.  Note that all my momentum and cycle indicators are now heavily oversold.  In the recent general market conditions I have found that this setup works well in the shorter term, with any SP up move stopping around the level of the 50 SMA (the blue line on the chart).



So there you go.  There is no question regarding the fact that someone with big pockets came in and bought heavily back on 22/11.  There also isn’t any question about the current financial vulnerability of OGX.  If you want to get an update on these issues then I suggest you read the excellent posts from Jimeone and q*9 on the OGX “Anglo” thread.  IMO I wouldn’t now consider any purchase of OGX shares as being an investment.  Basically it would be a punt, or a gamble IMO.  Whether the TA or the speculative FA when combined suggests that the odds fall in favour of a buy is up to each individual player in the game to decide.  The only thing that I would suggest is that if you do intend to have a punt then only bet what you are happy to lose.

All this is of course is only IMO.  Good luck everyone.