oh fa' friday, page-14

The XJO is still pinned under the 50 day ema. If if falls away then we might be seeing a head and shoulders that supports the bear case.

and speaking of market commentators I see Roubini has been predicting a crash for around December 18th. Not that I ever pay any attention to such commentators but it suits me to do so today. If indeed we are going to follow a similar path to GFC 1 then we are running a monthish ahead of schedule as the SPX peaked sept 14th as opposed to OCtober 11th in 2007. You may recall in 2008 the first gut wrenching plunge was into Jan 22nd 2008 followed by a feeble attempted rally then a lower low on March 17th. If Roubini is correct then that would line up more or less with a schedule that was a month ahead of 2008.

It seems the strongest part of the year is always a rally from feb/march up into april/may and 2008 was no exception with a strong rally up into May 19th...that might equate to a post xmas rally up into late april this year then a final 60 day fall into the June 22/23 weekend.

Speculation at best, but there you have it