9LThe S&P500 was around 1240 in July 2008.Currently the S&P500...

9L

The S&P500 was around 1240 in July 2008.

Currently the S&P500 is at 1391, having peaked at 1465 in September 2012.

If the US market fell back to 1240 it would only be another 10.8% from its current level. That is not catastrophic. There are analysts from the major US finance houses who have predicted such a drop. Goldman Sachs has had a target of 1250, Morgan Stanley had a target of 1167 (both by end 2012). Their end 2013 targets are much higher.

The S&P500 was at 1123 back in August 2011 so 1240 would still be well up on that level.

http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-2013-sp-500-target-2012-10

http://au.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGSPC#symbol=^gspc;range=5y;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

What would be concerning would be a 30% drop from the September high, ie down to 1026, or lower. Somehow I doubt we will get this unless there is severe recession in the US or there is major financial instability.

Having cash will be useful if markets fall substantially and I think being 50% in cash is prudent.

We await developments.

loki