oh my valentine

While we are waiting on the results of the rotary lie detector, some pondering on a possible but not unreasonable scenario:

They hit a good gas/liquids flow in Valentine, after all, the chances are far better than average given it's an appraisal well, gas has been struck there before.

Despite the better view they have of the structure given the advances in 2D-3D seismic and seismic processing over the last 15 years, the flow rate reduces on testing, just like last time, despite the better location in the reservoir. Given that

A. they are prepared for this and

B. now the gas has a high value, unlike when it was first discovered and had a low value and it was nearly impossible to get it to market and

C. they control the rig, most of the next wells are theirs, so they spend a few weeks getting it to flow properly and it is capped as a future production well.

The share price fluctuates quite a bit during this process but once the well is proven as a producer the Canning Basin is upgraded substantially and investors sitting on the sidelines start to buy in and interest grows in the remaining wells through to the end of the year. The bigger boys start to lick their lips in envy over the vast acreages in a now proven petroleum province and discover that Arc is in no dire need of partners.