Certainly @Rayda will do as I plan to keep CXO in the portfolio.
One thing I would immediately say is this model ONLY values potential money flow. So for example to you point of potentially any new resources with higher Li2O% will have NO EFFECT on this model per se. It was done over 8 yrs specifically to sort match up with the original resource in the CR presentation along with the noted production volume.
What would changes this model greatly is say "risk" was assessed to be in the 16% - 20% range as there was lots of uncertainty around how deeply a recession may affect demand, inflation reduces value of a $1 and how much more expensive capital can get (I know we have not debt but a buyer may borrow to buy us for example). If I make just that change it looks like this ... a loss of 20% to "fair value". The FX could change also
If I kept the discount rate at between 11.5% - 13.5% but say got an answer to my one of questions that the Yahua OTA has a ceiling price of say $1,000 for the first 2 years of OTA, then the model suggests a "Fair Value" of just $1.53 and if you agree with my logic as an investor I'm getting 75% of that we arrive at market price of ~$1.15 ... funny about that,
Ultra important to apply what you know, find out what you dont and then assign the appropriate risk.
CXO Price at posting:
$1.17 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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