Don't forget the Weinstein of analysts Aesir Initiates with a...

Don't forget the Weinstein of analysts

Aesir Initiates with a Price Target of A$7.33 which Represents a 50/50 blend of our Comparables (EV/Sales) and Discounted Cash Flow Methodologies for ~200% UpsideWith the current pipeline ramp-up and the NA Williams deal fully deployed, GetSwift should be on track to do ~A$200m revenue comfortably in CY2020. GetSwift’s peer universe is richly valued for markedly less growth than GetSwift offers, albeit the companies are significantly more mature in their life cycle. Given GSW’s superior growth profile and margin structure, it is fair to assume that it could trade at ~10x EV/Sales based on 2019 sales projections which would equate to $2.06 billion enterprise value ($1.982 billion market cap), resulting in a $9.31/share fair value for the common equity in 2018. To sense-check that number, we used a discount cash flow model with Aesir NOPAT projections to 2022, a terminal growth of 5% and tax rate of 30%. To reflect the high level of execution risk, we opted for a 20% discount rate which results in an NPV/share of $5.34. As a thought exercise, Aesir elected to reverse engineer the share price to see what the implied discount rate the market was assigning to the Company’s projected cash flows. Under our assumptions, a 40% discount rate equates to a A$2.40 share price. This suggests that the market is still in ‘wait and see’ mode with regards to whether the management can fully execute on their current contracted deals and more interestingly, the market is attaching zero value to GSW’s deal pipeline, including the one other ‘embargo deal’ that management references in its presentation materials. This represents a substantial opportunity