You say : "So aed has the potential to be producing 40,000 bpd by the end of the year. with operating costs of $33, and operating margin of $50 per barrel is realistic".
AED's Quarterly Says: "Total Operating Costs for the North East (which are predominantly the fixed costs for leasing and operating the Front Puffin FPSO) approximated A$33/barrel sold, resulting in a gross operating profit of A$29.3 million."
If I read AED's statement correctly, then the marginal cost from producing more oil is not A$33 but closer to zero. ie. the operating costs are essentially fixed costs. Therefore, if AED did increase production by a factor of 2 to 3 times, then the costs of production should also fall by a factor of 2 to 3. i.e A$11 to A$16.5.
Regards
SP
AED Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held