oh really - 15 million relenza doses , page-18

re: ousia's update Many thanks for your views on Ouisa's (negative) post.

I am utterly of the opinion that the statement made by GSK of 15m doses in the current calendar year ONLY applies to ONE factory.

It seems likely that the journalist misreported this production figure (inferring it equates to GSK's global production) or GSK deliberately misled the journalist into thinking it equated to Global production.

I firmly believe that we should continue to value BTA on the basis that each plant will produce in the order of 15m doses. This assumption will hopefully be confirmed in the press coverage of GSK's Opening Ceremony/Exhibition at Boronia earlier today.

The Boronia plant should start producing Relenza in the next month or two. Everyone here is aware that of the GOVT orders, which have been disclosed, for Relenza. These orders total ~20m doses but, as we all know....only represent the tip of the iceberg.

We are also aware via the weekend media coverage that GSK has now pledged to donate Relenza to the WHO. It is inconceivable to think that GSK is endeavouring to satisfy "known" GOVT orders...plus "unreported" GOVT orders...plus the WHO donation from a limited production capacity of 15m.

Moreover, it is inconceivable that GSK would only seek to supply GOVT orders and choose not to address the public demand for Relenza in the global Pharma marketplace which amounts to more than 500m.

I don't expect Biota to make any announcements to the market regarding the order from Singapore or the order from Hawaii. These orders are too small to warrant an asx announcement. However, IMO, the order from Hawaii is nevertheless very significant because it confirms that...

1. the US really does have a dual anit-viral stockpiling policy
2. the individual States have been told to place orders for Tamiflu and Relenza ASAP
3. local orders are an adjunct to the Strategic National Stockpiles which are managed by the Federal Authorities

As a result, we should expect to see many more announcments in the Press in coming weeks, confirming that each State has placed orders for Relenza as per the Federal Pandemic Flu Plan.

Lastly, when determining a share price valuation for BTA, I have previously suggested that Biota expenses will be similar to last year. I still believe that expenses will come in around the A$19m mark - give or take. It is my understanding that litigation has been slightly more expensive than last year but, US costs should be less than last year as a result of actions to downsize that operation.

Don't forget to add in the A$6-7m for MedImmune and remember that MedImmune is expected to cover related costs going forward.

All up...the next few days, weeks and months should clarify the substantial upside that exists for BTA.

Keep an eye out for the half yearly report which is due around thew 21st February 2006.