Oil and Gold, page-24

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slange

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28/11/14

10:51

Post #: 14370381
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Originally posted by Infose ↑

Hi Timber,

During the 70's a fall of this magnitude in the price of crude would have caused a devastating effect on gold prices. This because at that time oil was being considered as the prime mover behind what was called cost-pushing inflation. However, nothing of this sort is now in place.

Yes, high oil prices did facilitate surplus dollars from oil exporting countries to move into gold. But the fact is that lower oil prices will put more money into peoples' pockets and some of that extra money may well end by finding its way into gold. On the supply side, miners will have their energy costs lowered, which may result in some of them being kept afloat for some more time and in that way causing the supply of minable gold to be kept at current levels.. For these reasons I would be inclined to say that strictly from an economic point of view the recent fall in oil prices may be considered as neutral as far as gold is concerned.

However, this fall may have geopolitical implications that may drive the price of gold up . For sure that Putin and Iran will see this as an Western conspiracy aimed at cutting their legs. For instance, at 69 dollars per barrel Putin's budget will be deeply in the red making the billions required for the modernization of Russian's armed forces hard to find. How Putin will react is a bit difficult to predict. He may well decide to react by appealing to nationalistic feelings among Russian populace and increase tensions with the West to the point of making military confrontation to be thought to become inevitable (the URRS caused exactly that type of feeling with its invasion of Afghanistan). Or he may react by backing down.

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the yanks are getting hurt as well mate
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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