HDR trading at 2005 PE of 2 Joker,Will it fall further? I...

HDR trading at 2005 PE of 2 Joker,

Will it fall further? I certainly hope so. My dream is that it would fall back to 0.05 so I can top up at my original entry price.

HDR has A$60 million in cash (0.13 per share) and the first production from Chinguetti could be in late 2004 or early 2005 with Hardmans share at 17,000 barrels a day. At $US20 a barrel thats $US20 / $A0.55 * 17000 * 365 = $225million per annum revenue. Reduce by tax of 40%, FPSO leasing & other operating costs of 10% gives $112m pa. Divided by 440m shares gives a EPS of 0.25 per share.

HDR is trading on a PE little more than 2 times expected 2005 earnings. Thats not counting Australian revenue from Jim & Wood which will kick in earlier. Then Banda will come on stream and if only a third of the other 93 Mauritanian leads are hits and HDR will be paying an annual dividend greater than its current share price. Guys in Woodside who have seen the siesmics for both regions, are saying Mauritania will be bigger than the Gulf of Mexico.

If anyone wants to cast their slide rule over these figures please do so, but don't be a cowardly sniper, post your alternative numbers.

Please Mr Market, knock HDR down to 0.05. If markets didn't make mistakes smart people couldn't get rich.