It appears that OPEC is saying that they intend to go back to...

It appears that OPEC is saying that they intend to go back to the 30mbd . They are saying that the growth in oil demand ; 1.8 bl yr. in 016 and projected 1.3 bl yr. in 017, will balance out and create an $88 pb market. However its hard to see American shale and Canadian oil sands sitting on the sideline. But you are totally right, A little less oil , probably only 1mbd. will create a tight market . The real denominator here is ; everyone is loosing massive amounts of money including OPEC. Sure they have reserves , at least the Arabs do , but they are being flushed away very fast. Big banks are angry as they are significant investors in American oil, and they have been forced to pay billions in hedging . this game has a long way to play out, but no doubt it will...... cheers.