oil-coups-price rises

It is likely that another attempted coup d etat against Venezuelen president Hugo Chavez will occur in the very near future. If the reports by commentators in Chile and Cuba are to be deemed socialist self serving rhetoric then at least the historic patterns of behaviour by the US and other interested parties including the French and British will lend support to the theory.

Nigeria is in the throes of another violent upheavel inspired and fired by oil and gas. The arrest and attempted 'liquidation' of the trade union leader over the past week, only thwarted by an alert and now more defensivetrade union movement over the weekend shows no signs of abateing. Foreign workers and embassies have been put on alater for possible 'civil' unrest directed against foreign interest.

Ret. Gen. Obasanjo has threatened to use the miliary to restore production and to arrest anyone disrupting oil supplies. Fair enough. But the arrests will not in themselves bring oil prices down nor quell the unrest from the disparity in living standards within Nigeria brought about by policies forced upon it by forein oil companies. remember what a big Dutch oil company aided and abbetted ni what was done to a well known dissident writer there not long ago??

The price of oil will be at US$60 before the year is out. Thats being generous and not alarmist. Trade Union leaders and other members of groups from developing countries have already made their mark in Papua New Guinea where any government must now face the prospect of what many refer to as the theft of their gas to serve the needs of a very rich dominant and unfair Australia.

Again without being alarmist, I forecast serious interruptions to the gas pipeline to Queensland. It is not as smooth sailing as they have made it out to be.

Economists have failed to predict the true levels of demand for oil from countries like China and India let alone the US and Europe. The demand overshoot by at least 25% is a serious flaw in the models being used by 'economists' in predicting supply levels, driving prices up. The question is, why are they doing it? 25% is not the normal margin of error allowed in such calculations. it is the margin for dismissal.