The revenue looking forward will be helped by oil at $108US on WTI and when profit after interest expense is converted back to AUD at around 0.92c US per AUD. Lets hope those conditions hold or improve.
Whilst I think the previous quarter will be very flat numbers or even a decline on monthly average production, looking forward we seem to have hit a sweet area with less rapid decline and nice 400+ BOD wells. 3 wells into that this quarter would be helpful to get the number heading back north.
Then there is the subsalt. Linc seem to have two wells with drilling approval for total depth > 12000 ft on Texas RRC. I have given links to these W-1 well approvals in previous posts. If these prove to have significant flow will be great news. The Yegua formation sub-salt could have billions of barrels of untapped oil, it is new frontier stuff but expensive to explore. A dry hole there is $15 to 20M....
When it comes to SP in the next 6 weeks I think we could see a fall on bad news from gulf coast oil production but the extent is mitigated by the recent announcement and will also depend on the timing of any Arckaringa deal or left field UCG deal. IMO Arckaringa with the right partner and a bit of luck in the next 12 months has the potential to take Linc to a totally new level above $5, a lack of a deal will mean we will languish till September till news from DTEK once the Verkhovka Rada get to the second reading and pass the energy liberalization bill.
There is also a Teresa EIS coming soon, maybe the work at Gregory Crinim was part of the Teresa EIS? Divestment of New Emerald Coal to come this half, timing with coal price does not look favourable but if it can happen quickly in a JV with BHP to fund more activity in Arckaringa would be handy.
Both an exciting and nervous period in the Short term. By Feb 2014 Arckaringa, DTEK and Umiat outcomes will be clearer. A bit of luck could see us in very good shape next year.
LNC Price at posting:
$1.73 Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
