Szaba I think you've nailed it here, "Both an exciting and nervous period in the Short term. By Feb 2014 Arckaringa, DTEK and Umiat outcomes will be clearer. A bit of luck could see us in very good shape next year."
The big variable here is Feb14.
Brings me to the 'PB 60% rule.'
Cedar Pt well announcement high-lighted for me that a 600bbld (yes, quite good) well, in terms of gross revenue, which is what should count to shareholders, can be passed off by PB as a 1000 BOEPD well ( in terms of energy contained (irrelevant as we are not power generaters). Bipolar shareholders loved it. So we will call it a 1000bbls, but they will only be 60% full. 60% is OK. 'The PB 60% rule.'
In terms of exit rates vs monthly ( now quarterly) averages, take a look at Dec12. Monthly average 3784 BOEPD. Apply the 'PB 60% rule' with a desired upgrade of say 60%, multiply by 1.6 (a fib extension, Hi Lory). 3784 x 1.6 = 6054 BOPD on that one miraculous day. Close enough :-). So to achieve 8,000 bbld exit rate this year, we should only need a monthly average of 5,000, and we're already there, give or take. Rest assured we will have 'one perfect day' late in Dec13. Yay!
In terms of the FY13 Revenue guidance given of $173Mpa and our total after 3 quarters of $89.4M, 60% of $173M is $103M. Leaving us only $14M to get, so anything above that, u bet ya, will be a win, as viewed by the bipolar. Yay!
Which brings me to the point (sorry :-) ).
TIMELINES. History of LNC would suggest a denominator of 0.6 would be wildly optimistic. I think 0.6 squared may be closer to the mark as the denominator. So in terms of the Arck, I think we were looking at 12mths, end of CY13. So 12/0.36 = 33 months.
Lol. All good fun, and all in my humble opinion.
MrMc, the change in policy in China re UCG wasn't lost on me, though I haven't read the link yet (later today).
LNC Price at posting:
$1.73 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
