Actually, whereas it may not be a big issue for the global O&G industry, I believe it will have a huge impact on NZ. What Ardern has just done is to increase significantly the sovereign risk of investing in NZ. Without the opportunity to explore for fields in new licenses, the present owners are on a hiding to nothing as their reserves diminish to zero. The investment fear that this creates will in my view also deter onshore O&G exploration investment due to the increased risk of the ban being extended in the future to all new licenses.
That's what you get when you elect a parliament that cannot form a government on its own and has to make deals with minority parties such as the Greens. Adern also needed the nod from a third minority party, NZ First to wrest government from the sitting party.
MAY has sovereign risk attached to its Cuba play but has a home grown iron in the fire in Beehive. However, don't think it couldn't happen in Australia, though unlikely any time soon, given the size, $ value, and importance of the LNG export market on the world stage. It is however, already being played out in the unconventional O&G sector with various State fraccing bans and in the case of Victoria, a complete onshore ban of all exploration. Should the Greens form an alliance with Labor to form a Federal parliament at some future election, there is no telling what they will demand for their support. I should say that in my view, politicians of all political persuasions have a tendency to put their own short term interests above the longer term interests of the country, so if it means the chance at forming a government, Labour in Australia may well give in to similar demands by the Greens to follow NZ's lead. Just my personal view. Nothing more.
MAY Price at posting:
1.2¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
