If oil ever got so rare in the scenario you suggest at the pumps then crude would be trading at well over $100/barrel.
I have been following oil for a while now and have not seen it fall below the 200DMA. Actaully the 200DMA is a crucial point as you mentioned and it bounced off that level yesterday and is up 1.50 from that low.
The oil indecies in the US (^oix and ^xoi) are all up today even on good storage data.
To me crude oil has just made a bottom and the futures charts show the big boys are very long crude oil. Winter closing in on the US and peak usage period for oil derivatives cannot make the price plummet. It's going up from here just buy the dips.
