The coming recession in the most relevant parts of the...

The coming recession in the most relevant parts of the worldeconomy is underway. The virus is the catalyst for this. To be honest the impact of the virus is a sudden one. A lot of people are scared and change their attitude: no more flying, no more visiting of restaurants,cinemaś etc etc. So every company selling something to consumers will see a rapid fall in turnover. To see the general SP of a lot of companies, after many years of increases, is quite a normal thing. Agreed the way down goes a lot faster than up. That interest rates are crumbeling again, of the already low levels, because of actions of Central Banks, is for the short term also not a surprise. The effect on the longer term is more difficult to foresee (I am of the opinion that there is more inflation in the world than the official figures are measuring, for example in my country (the netherlands) the increase in a lot of central and local taxes (and they are there) are not measured, even so for the health insurance premiums. Combine this with the moneyprinting, the debt bubble and you can expect a return to some higher levels of interest. How high I do not know because there are a lot of savings available in the world because of a population in the world who are becoming older and older.) So a lot what we see these days was to be expected. Also understaindable is the way POG is behaving. The current level of USD 1670,- was only seen many years ago. But in the context of what is unfoulding I would expect an even higher POG (I am still optimistic we will see that in the near future). What did surprise me is the behouviour of the SP of the miners. I did not foresee the volatility am I now seeing. I can understand that there is some selling preasure because of the wish to go for cash, marging calls etc. But not the current magnitude. What to expect next. For me I always hang on the the economic fundamentals of the miners. what do I see: there are producing a product (gold) which is sold without any problem (tell that to airliners, hotel chains etc) at the best prices in a decade, they have repared their balance sheets in the last years (they are increasing their dividends) and as a bonus one of their biggest costgroups (ie energy) are falling rapidly (a good chance to buy hedges for the next 2/3 years I would say). So I expect 2020 to be the best years in a long time for the miners (both on a NPAT-level as free cashflows). This all tells me that the SP of the majority of the miners will bounce back in the first phase and after good Q1figures for the FY2020 the will increase quite a lot further. I am not enyoing what I see now but I know there will be much better times ahead. And imaging yourselve what the free cashflows will be of the miners when POG increases another USD 200,-per OZ in the reminder of the year (not a crazy expectation!). For example for a company lik Barrick with a production of 5 mln.OZ this financial year this means an extra free cashflow of 5 mln. x 200,- = USD 1 bln. Wow to say the least.