Kahuna1 you make a most interesting observation about the fundamental change in the backwardation of oil futures contracts.
It shows a change in sentiment about the future, but I dont know how reliable it will be as predictor of future oil prices.
Sentiment about almost anything in the markets can change very fast. I remember a year or two ago my broker convincing me not to buy WPL at $12 as it was overpriced. However I am now considering buying at nearly twice that price - hopefully that too will seem cheap in a few years.
I don't wish to seem pedantic, but isnt contango the precise opposite of backwardation?
oil price target for 2005 of us$64.21- us$66.90, page-3
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