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bobgg

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16/12/14

10:34

Post #: 14466804
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Originally posted by gassed ↑

This is an alternative take on the oil price from this morning's "Seeking Alpha".

"Needless to say, I don't agree with the new crop of oil doomsayers, and even if oil does drop more, it probably is not a sustainable drop. So what if oil drops to $40 per barrel, if it is going to quickly rebound -- as this articleby Cam Hui points out, the futures market is indicating a five-year average price of $80 per barrel. Investors who are too short-sighted and focused on today's price of oil are mistaken and should instead be thinking about what oil might average over the next few years. History teaches us that most plunges in the price of oil have been very short-lived, especially when the global economy was growing.
Based on all this, I do see immense opportunity -- but it is in small-cap oil stocks. These stocks have been absolutely crushed in the past few weeks, which highlights the liquidity risks in small caps. These types of stocks do not typically offer a dividend, so there is no yield support as Exxon shares offer. These smaller companies are not as well-known, and the market and demand for the stock is not as deep or wide as it is for Exxon. That means that there is a lot more liquidity risk and volatility in the small caps. This can be a real potential risk to consider as small caps can easily overshoot to the downside.
However, when this happens it can also be an extraordinary or "immense" buying opportunity."

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I think everyone knows that if oil falls to $40, no matter how short term, SP will be smashed (nightmare for small-caps). So today being "immense buying opportunity" is a big joke IMHO as share prices could still go much lower. I lost a lot on gold miners in the last 1-2 yrs thinking it was "immense buying opportunity" too.

ICN Price at posting: 10.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held

BPT Price at posting: 88.5¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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