re: oil prices to fall? why? That verdict of the Economist isn't...

re: oil prices to fall? why? That verdict of the Economist isn't worth much with that condition attached.

Part of the oil price is exactly that: fear that the supply may be disrupted.

It is no different than saying: it will remain dry all year, provided it doesn't rain!

Some 5 months or so ago, I did suggest that the medium term price for oil could be $45. That is $45+-/$5 (One has to allow for deviation, a band).

Sofar, that prediction did quite well ($45-$50, on the high side of $45).

Gerry