"have you been keeping touch with the weather report in the US...big cold front expected."
World oil prices do not depend on a single cold front in the US.
The only thing that can explain the recent large movement in the oil price (and the copper price) is the effects of speculators.
The million $$ question is was the previous price too high because of speculators and thus the current price more sustainable or is the current price too low because of speculators overreacting.
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