CTP 1.92% 5.1¢ central petroleum limited

Salty,I follow your argument and there is obvious merit in what...

  1. 100 Posts.
    Salty,

    I follow your argument and there is obvious merit in what you're saying. It is true that a JV will not be some prophetic epiphany during which all of Central's issues will be alleviated in one blessed act. For those dreaming of such a moment, the reality is much more sobering. Joint Ventures need to be on the right terms, or else we'll once again be stuck with a company such as BG - unwilling to progress our project, and leave us in the doldrums until they care enough to continue and mobilise the project.

    You cannot however, assume that all JV's will be like this one, though it is obvious that such a catastrophe would have resulted in some measure of emotional scarring. As such, JH and the board would be even more cautious of doing deals - understandable as they can't risk another failure. This is one of the fundamental reasons why many companies enlist the support of professionals when looking for potential partners. They have wider scope, and already know in advance what a portfolio of clients are looking for. They can match up the most appropriate parties, and give a JV a better chance as they act on the interest of the two parties.

    It also frees up the time of JH and other staff to concentrate on conducting Central's business and in this case, working towards the EPT and proving Surprise-1REH.

    I would like to offer, casting assumption that all Joint Ventures will be failures like BG is a slight overstatement, though I accept where it has come from. I think Buru is actually a poor example to illustrate your point, because in actuality, it proves the contrary.

    As Doodlebugger (in his reply post) said, it is in all likelihood that Buru made the tough call early, to make a deal that may not leave them with the magic 100% interest mark. What DID happen as a result, is that Buru, armed with only their fresh IPO money (and whatever original capital remained) took to the land with their JV and although giving up 50% of their project, delivered fairly early success (within 3 years) for their shareholders. From an original price of $0.25, they find themselves at c.$1.50 and more importantly at a market capitalisation of $345m. This is a value nearly 5 times that of CTP - despite the JV farmout of 50% (or there abouts as I am trusting those figures).

    I guess the primary calls for Joint Ventures are coming out by virtue of the realisation that CTP cannot raise endless money on the ASX, as investor pockets are ever receding. In order to advance the company, it is believed by many that the time has come to find a new way to move forward, and that is with Joint Venture. It is important to note that Central is in a FAR better position to be negotiating JVs as they have such a large permit holding, that they could forseeably advance one area lone via farmin, and use the resources generated to facilitate growth across the remaining myriad of develop-able permits!

    The problem with CTP's discoveries to date is none of them have reached a proven stage, be that "JORC" for the coal, or "P figure" for the oil or gas. As such it is difficult to value these resources, and realistically it would be difficult to imagine investors supporting Central in CR's much longer or an investment bank coming in without requesting the company enter a JV, or prove Surprise as a commercial success after the EPT. This is of course here-say, and I am surmising based on my own experiences, but given the overwhelming tide of support for a JV, I suspect that is the way forward.

    I do believe that if CTP can PROVE Surprise through this EPT, then we enter a new vernacular, because the odds are high that the share price will rally, our market capitalisation will also rise (obviously), and more importantly, it increases our ability to do a deal on the right terms for the company. If we can break the shackles of sub $150m, then our JV deals can be more slanted to CTP, but until then it still favours the farminors.

    So which comes first? Anyone's guess but you would suspect given the successful CR just undertaken, that Central will more than likely put everything into this EPT, in the hope that it will support their belief in the value of the company - and therefore the value they place on their joint ventures. Only this time, if they succeed, it will be justified.

    RB
 
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