Hi nkarp,
well we'll know in 1 month if Alcan sign up. They have to choose between Oil Search, Woodside or Santos. Woodside and Santos have fields in the Timor sea but Oil Search should be able to deliever the gas cheaper.
The contract for 40pj per annum should get the PNG pipeline into FEED.
I'm tipping that the PNG pipeline will get up and running this year... it might not be Alcan signing up but other customers would want to see another compeditor in the Aussie gas market (Alcan would too).
If they enter FEED I'd expect OSH to go for a rather large run, perhaps to around $1. The project is factored out of the stock price buy could fall a little on the news Alcan chooses another. OSH has alternatives that will deliver returns to shareholders probably sooner than we would see with the pipeline. We'll know either way by mid year.
Personally I'd prefer just to see the liquid stripping project go ahead... lower upside ($1.50 odd) but we'll see returns sooner and with more certainty.
It's an exciting year for OSH and with Oil in the mid 30's sentiment could really turn quickly in favour of OSH.
Cheers,
Munch.
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