SnowKat, I'm sorry you don't like my opinion. Contrary to what...

SnowKat, I'm sorry you don't like my opinion. Contrary to what you think, I don't consider that disagreeing with someone's post is putting them down. I apologise to the original poster unreservedly if he thought that was what I was meant.

I don't consider the fact that I don't know EVERYONE in the oil industry, incestuous as it may be, to be particularly relevant. FYI I hold 185k shares in CTP, some of which I've had since 2006 but the vast majority bought at 5-9c.

I'm really enjoying the posts from psi81. I think he is a gentleman likely to know the difference between boudinage and crenulation but still have a level investing head on his shoulders. I can claim the former, but the boat is out on the latter as yet!

I am well aware of CTPs commitments and haven't missed the point you assume I overlooked. In fact I have posted about work commitment issues in the recent past. I think CTP has at least two coming uplifts on positive news with substance (another JV coming and the surprise flow testing results). I'm hoping that by mid next year I'll be able to buy a new car on the profits of my CTP shares.

What I don't enjoy is irrational exuberance. You can make a lot of money out of it sure, but I'd prefer substance rather than hot air. If you want hot air then PVD is the stock for you. IMHO.

The post of mine I think you are complaining about was meant to remind people that $150m isn't yet in the bag. $30m is in the bag and it may amount to nothing (no discovery) since the acreage is practically frontier and there is a lot of work to be done.

There are a lot of people on HC who jump to completely irrational valuations for their beloved companies. EGO put out a RPS energy resource estimate that 24TCF of undiscovered gas in place exists in EP389. People on that forum were multiplying 24TCF by the prevailing domestic gas price and dividing that number by shares on issue. Some were upset when I posted that there would be a greater chance of me eating all of the coal in EP389 than any company you care to name producing 24TCF from it! And that's only a small part of what is wrong with reaching a SP valuation from that calculation.

Santos did a similar structured JV deal with Caspian which never got beyond the first tranche and Santos walked. Incidentally, CIG re-invented itself and bought a copper mine. Its shares are up 1300% since June. Quite rare for that to happen though and pity I have never held CIG!

Mitsui did a similar deal with Tethys in Oman and spent over $100m with not much of a result (7 wells, all commercial failures though two found heavy crude it wasn't moveable- might also be too deep to steam flood). Mutsui still has an interest in the development they funded, but all the exploration failed.

Alcoa invested a fair chunk of cash in Transerv and thus far has failed to get anything appreciable out of Warro. I think they still have one well left to drill. Alcoa have also invested in Empire, but in this instance they're far more likely to actually get the gas they want out of the deal since they are funding the processing plant for gas already discovered. Lets hope it declines as they expect it to (I recently became an EGO holder).

Who knows what will happen with the Santos/Central JV? What I will do is listen for the number of additional dev wells to be drilled on suprise, watch for any reported flow rates and how they subsequently decline over time and read the company cashflow statements. I'm hoping but not banking on anything to come from the Santos or any subsequent JV. I'm bloody glad that CTP hasn't done another cap raising to fund commitments though. Doing that dilutes the shareholders but NOT the risk.

Also I think that the TOC of shale in the kitchen is positive news, but you shouldn't lose sight of the fact that from there to dollars in the bank under the best of conditions is often longer than most SH can stand. And of course the odds are that there might not be anything commercial there at all.