Hi Rafish,They have oil. But how much is commercially...

Hi Rafish,

They have oil. But how much is commercially recoverable? Fine it flowed 300bbld initially, but if the reservoir pressure drops off a cliff it could just as easily be 3bbld in a couple of months. Will that justify the well costs? The news thus far is positive but there are no guarantees.

"extensive" is a relative term. Compared to the acreage in the Santos/CTP JV I wouldn't call the seismic coverage extensive at all. 80,000sq.km - I know BP is acquiring a 3D survey that's 8,000 sq.km off Namibia but I doubt that Santos/CTP have a significant proportion of their acreage covered by 3D or even close spaced 2D. No, extensive isn't the word I'd use. Even tiddlers like Tap Oil acquire 2000 or 3000 sq.km of 3D seismic when they get into frontier blocks. Yes, Santos are likely to have all of the historical data in the area but last time I checked it's a HONKING big area and the data available is sparse. 30 million dollars of exploration will barely scratch it. 150 million will barely scratch it. That is why I gave those examples, where other companies came in and spent similar amounts of money on all kinds of projects (and universally far less acreage) and found bugger all. There are no guarantees.

I did mention the price I bought most of my shares at- if you got a better one Kudos to you, but it's hardly worth a pissing competition is it?

The Santos JV, while great for CTP is no guarantee of success. I'd love to know why you think I'm deliberately out to mislead shareholders. After all oil exploration is a risk management business. Don't you think people deserve to know the potential risks just as much as they would like to read about the potential rewards?