afternoon guys, have been really busy at this end so no time to go through the posts.
Not much to add really, I think most of my comments regarding the structure and stage we're at were made last night which can be pieced together ;). It is a very positive ann anyway and after lunch the purni was interpreted at around 400m thick.
Things are very positive in terms of CBM potential given the increased size of the intersected column and gas reading units (IMO this coal intersection is good). It is a possibility, using colson 1 (as the nearest example), the current readings, and coal intersections, the area is still type 3 kerogen based (gas prone) and that liquid hyrdocarbons have been expelled leaving it open to migration - where to is questionable. Food for thought - being an anticline - has most of the liquid hydrocarbons migrated up as we saw in the residual oil shows in the algebuckina and get washed away??? Vertical permeability of all horizons will be interesting. We have a high gas content and oil shows around 1797 to 1812 , residual shows in the algebuckina and a missing poolowanna.
Anyway, if in the case there is no oil in place, after wireline logging it is possible that the company could retain it as a future CBM producer depending on how "wet" the fractions are. Keep in mind the well has not been appropriately logged yet so these readings could substantially change (ie - the gas samples they're getting are more than likely dissipated by the time the readings are taken at the surface). Further to that, keep in mind the current mudlogging is not that accurate - and the final wireline logs could actually show us a reasonable column that the mudlogger missed or, was contaminated with coals et al.
On another note, given the walkandi was not at colson and the purni only 150-200m thick, we're gladly looking at a totally different story (but we knew that from the start). The seal looks great and if the tirrawarra is there we could be in luck. The crown point below is suggested to be some of the deeper permo-carboniferous sections in the basin and hallows trend. After the tirrawarra horizon, as I suggested last night, more than likely the warburton could be gas prone than oil but we will find out about the warburton later next week as its possible they'll be due for a bit change shortly.
All in all its looking good, mondays ann will be a cracker and even if the tirrawarra does not demonstrate liquid hydrocarbons, I think we've still found a potential CBM producing well and this one well will definitely add enormous benefit to the future drilling campaign via understanding of the stratigraphy.
Put simply:
- the main play is still there (tirrawarra) - we have what seems to be a good seal - the walkandi sealing horizon is interpreted to be there - the permian purni is nice and thick - we have relatively encouraging CBM results and gas unit readings - the coal intersections are good - the permo carboniferous crown point formation is meant to be relatively thick/deep in the area - oil shows are evident - wireline logs still need to be run once the well is completed and could easily change the story - we're getting a great idea of the stratigraphy and future endeavours in the basin will be correlated with this. Remember its been about 15 years since a decent well was drilled in the area.
Next week should be the initial key with respect to oil potential but most of our realistic information will come from the logging stage in a few weeks.
CTP Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
