Whiskey, H, Cobra,
Just an opinion guys, nothing more--I have exited all other stocks I held very recently. FAR is all that I hold now.
My "crystal ball" has always been pretty well broken Whiskey, so no need for repairs--I like my useless predictions
just the way they are. H.. i don't want to see the SP of FAR fall, I meant that IF it does fall I will happily load up some
more. As to my reasoning about the POO, more from a macro point of view, I don't have any clue as to TA, apart from
the most basic elements.
POO in the high 30's? Well, not so long ago it {WTI at least} hit $43, so a less than 10% fall from this level will see it
in the 30's. Despite the recent rally back up to $52 I see nothing drastically changing in the state of the economies of
the world. What games OPEC/Saudi Arabia may be playing at the moment can only help exacerbate the situation of
course. Note that production in the US unconventional space is actually still increasing as we speak, as well as in the
conventional producers such as Russsia, Venezuala, Iran etc. All this at a time when Europe/Japan is in the grip of
deflation/recession, China is slowing etc and even though the US "seems" to be growing, real incomes of the
"middle class" there have declined 10% or more over the last decade. True, beginning second half 2015 oil production in
the US will have declined from present levels if POO stays at the $50-60 or less level, however I feel by that time the
Euro zone may well be fracturing with Greece biting the bullet and exiting. No big deal about Greece per se, just that
those other basket cases in Spain, Portugal, Italy etc will be lining up behind them.
Money printing already factored in EU for the next 18 months min which results in a further strengthening of the US dollar via massive capital flows from Europe/Japan and corresponding pain for bulk commodities in particular, but also oil and precious metals. US joins the money printing race again with QE4 when it's false growth now turns anemic as well sometime in early 2016 when we will see a new bull market in commodities--not because of any improvement in demand or world growth but simply as a hedge/safe haven against the basket of useless devalued currencies. Hard assets in other words against worthless paper money. Cost push inflation or stagflation in other words. Too much money chasing too few goods. A commodities
revival by " proxy".
So, i do see a strong rebound in oil/precious metals based on the above if it plays out. Perfect timing for FAR post
successful appraisal. Having said all that, it is an "opinion" only and I continue to hold and add to FAR regardless
of my and any other useless crystal ball gazing.
GLTAH
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