Oil gradually climbing, and only 10 trading days until the 31st...

Oil gradually climbing, and only 10 trading days until the 31st August ERM poison pill disappears, which makes me wonder if September will be THE month for EGO.   All we know - in reality - is that recasing and retesting on RGN1 will most likely take place in Q4/2016, so we can assume that anyone wanting to purchase a slice of EGO before any possible good news coming from that well should really step up to the place sometime in September.  Successful results from RNG1 will, if Hartley's are to be believed, drive the share price up at least 10 cents (refer: Hartleys valuation of 15th January 2016 with 50% risk weighting applied), making Empire at least $8 million more expensive to MIN if they were to have interest in a full takeover.  RGN1's success will also be seen to de-risk EGO from a farmin perspective, opening up the "other exploration' [ref: Hartley's] valuation for further improvement.

There seems to be a theory circulating that the current price is either being capped, or good news suppressed, so as not to drive the SP up before 1st September.  I don't subscribe to the capping (manipulation / conspiracy) theory, however do believe that MIN will remain quiet - within the rules - on any plans they have for EGO until after 31st August.  The only IF, I believe, is whether MIN sees EGO as a possible subsidiary, or if they are simply using their holding of EGO as a hedge against future events (perhaps looking further forward to Lockyer).  On that subject, I believe that MIN have learnt their lesson from several years ago (Mesa, 2010) with Ellison probably under pressure from the Board to act with more urgency this time in order to avoid paying over the top for Empire.  MIN could, I guess, sit around and hope that their "strategic holding" in EGO simply proves to be a good investment as is, however this does not follow their previous MO and is not the sort of thing you would expect from a mining group who is actively seeking to vertically integrate (and have already spoken openly about EGO as a supplier for their gas requirements at Mt Marion).

On that basis I am sticking with Plan A being some sort of move in September (pre-RGN1 retesting, at least), or at the very least news coming from MIN regarding their longer-term ambitions.   Plan B (some sort of long term hedge or punt by MIN on EGO's success) just doesn't sit right with me.

Could be totally wrong though.   



Best regards to all.

Kit.