Will the oil recovery gain some momentum this time? I hope so, and so does the Shell boss as discussed here where he is calling for a swift double in oil prices, well at least by next winter in the US.
Despite the fact that this is an oil thread, I thought I would discuss my thoughts regarding other things here rather than opening a separate thread. Last Friday night SPXL, SVXY, etc. were down as it was a Friday and the Greek scenario was volatile. However, although it is only one weekend later, my thoughts are:
Tonight could be a good entry for SVXY, SPXL and DUST, but first I need to see what Exxon has to say and what the consumer spending and manufacturing data is tonight.
Tonight is Monday, which is a long way from Friday where traders get nervous about holding over the weekend.
If the consumer data and ISM is good tonight, then it could set the scene for a bull run up to the NFP on Friday night. The idea would be to set a relatively tight stop just before the NFP on Friday, but keep the stops loose throughout the week.
20 seconds to go and a fight breaks out in the superbowl, followed by one team winning. All of the bravado has to be channeled somewhere, and it could be let out via a bull run this week.
An increasing oil price will imo be a boost for stocks, and oil is presently on the rebound ... but will it last.
The SPXL chart is either set for an epic fail or a modest bounce, but I suspect the latter.
The SVXY chart is back close to the 12 month lows again and history has shown that an entry near these levels is often rewarded.
The DUST chart is also bottoming, and although Gold is recovering a little as I type, I suspect that Gold will retreat this week if stocks and oil increase.
Imo the Greek situation will get worse, particularly around the time that the Greek government runs out of money, which I vaguely recall is scheduled for the end of February. However, I suspect that this week the rhetoric out of Greece will give the European and US markets a boost. The waffle has already started as discussed here.
The SPX sold off in January 2014 and was followed by quite a strong bull run from the beginning of February through to 7-Mar-2014. Traders will remember this, and with January 2015 also being a down month, I suspect that the expectations for a strong February will be there.
With all the action in Europe lately, I suspect that the Fed will not increase interest rates at the 18-Mar-2015 meeting. Hence, if the majority are like-minded to me, then this will be another reason for at least a short bull run to resume.
