another arousing ann. today, to get those juices flowing. so where to from here?
fundamentally UMC's potential is without peer at the junior end of the iron whore spectrum i.e. those without crotchless JORC undies
fundamental downside risk is limited insofar as Ms Railway manages to pull up her JORC undies
upside blue sky hinges on whether debutantes Jumbo Junction, East Railway, Yandi HW et al become hookers or lookers. And that will not be known until Dr Cherry Popper deflowers our fair maidens with his throbbing magical drill bit
technically, UMC is in another holding pattern. i.e it ranges 1.80 - 2.00
there are plenty of penny pinching daytrading feeders (buy in 1.80's and sell in 1.90's) at this range and those feeders know who they are. essentially they are feeding off the psychological upside resistance $2 mark
UMC needs solid volume to conquer the $2 resistance point to the upside. so far, its done around 7 mill in volume since breaking through the 1.70 resistance line. considering it took around 7.5 million in volume to finally crack through the 1.70 line, then by association UMC should be ripe (insofar that it is more probable than not) to crack the $2 line in the next session or two, on volume, and hold it as its new resistance step.
if she manages to break $2 then she'll be free to run before overshooting, closely followed by the short term profiteers swooping in. i'd estimate the initial pop to top around 2.25 before pulling back to retest the 2.10 mark. after the profiteers are soaked up, then i would expect UMC to trade the 2.20 - 2.40 range (with the 2.50 line acting as the fresh psychological resistance point). Then again into the vicious cycle where the daily feeders move in to trade the range for their piddly 1c gains.
of course should any major positive fundamentally changing events occur during this time then the blue sky will only be limited by peoples emotions and valuations
immediate techincal downside risk as I see it is at $1.80.
the support at this line is both intrinsic and artifical. artificial insofar as our UMC guardian angel appears only to ensure support at 1.80 with magical 100k buy bids to extinguish all the evil nervous nellies flogging off their piddly parcels. however given the current broader volatile market, our guardian angel may well be on other duties. so the downside risk to the 1.80 is real
if she breaks 1.80 then low 1.70's provides a heavy support line. heaps of volume was churned here based on the capping during that time, in order to get that recent placement away at 1.75
if 1.70 pops then its all the way back to 1.40 then 1.20. And if she ever breaks $1 then buy as much tin spam as you can carry, batteries for your wireless and vibrators, bring your miss world blow up dolls, and run for the hills before the sky falls in
UMC Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
