Put the plan into the context of the historical performance of Relenza.
It generated around $175M ($25M p.a.) in revenue to Biota since stockpiling began in 2006. Im assuming most of this was stockpiling. All based on a crappy 20% market share and even crappier royalty rate of mainly 7%.
So if we were to apply Jessie's estimated Biota piece of the pie for LANI of 54-66% (net?) for ROW stockpiling ex Japan to the above, that $175M (using base case of 50%) would have been $1.2B ($175M p.a.) at a crappy 20% market share.
If we apply Japan market share to the above number, it becomes $3B ($430M p.a.).
Rough as guts back of the envelope numbers with liberal dosing of rounding.
So 175M RD (Relenza Dollars) converts into 3,000M LD.
BTA Price at posting:
70.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held