ok, this is getting ridiculous!

Ok, this is getting ridiculous!
Hi all,
I have been patient but this is one for the books ? I simply cannot understand why you would sell IFE at these levels or not buy if you had the cash.
It has been said here before, but I would like identify this in plain English ? and please tell me if I am wrong.

Facts:
? IFE have 263Mt JORC compliant Iron resource with potential identified of up to 2.2Bt
? DSO Iron to be used in production of stage 1 from late 2011/early 2012 (first year production 1 Mt then 2 Mt per year)
? Stage 2 expected to increase production up to 5-6Mt per year ? roughly year3/4
? Stage 3 expected to increase production up to ~10Mt per year
? ~$26m capital required in capital for production with ~$17m already raised and rest expected from debt
? Based on current iron ore prices, profit per tonne is expected to be ~$55.

Risks:
? Mining approvals to be granted ? although this could delay production, mining approvals are expected to be given
? Management have history of sometimes missing timelines and production could be delayed
? Iron Ore price could drop
? Remaining cash could be required from equity if debt is not available

Based on this, a reasonable forecast of earnings could be calculated:
Year 1 ? Profit $55m (risk 90%) = $49.5m
Year 2 ? Profit $110m (risk 80%) = $88m
Year 3 ? Profit $110m (risk 70%) = $77m
Year 4 ? Profit $330m (risk 50%) = $165m
Year 5 ? Profit $330m (risk 40%) = $132m
Remaining production uncertain but
resource base of ~240Mt at $5 per tonne - $1,200m (risk 25%) = $300
Total = $811.5m IFE owns 80% = $649.2m

This is simple and has no discount for time. This profit equates to $8.66 per share.

Not that I am suggested that the share price will be this tomorrow and plenty of risk in this company. Huge upside.

Regards,
W.