OK, this is getting ridiculous

So, I have the current NHC enterprise value at $1.5 billion as at the end of December. This assumes the $200 million of convertible notes are converted to shares (and hence NHC keeps the cash), and accumulation of cash since the last reporting period at July 31.

$AU coal price currently $232/tn based on US$165/tn and xrate 0.71.
$AU cash cost at Bengalla of $58, therefore cash margin $174/tn.

NHC share of salable coal produced = 8.3 million tonnes (assuming Bengalla ROM production of 13 million, yield 80% and NHC share of Bengalla 80%). This is all consistent with latest guidance in terms of ROM production and historical yield.

Cash generation = 8.3 million tonnes x AU$174/tn margin = $1.4 billion.

Corporate and capital costs are significantly less than $100 million, so free cashflow after capex is more than $1.3 billion. i.e. virtually the current enterprise value.Ok, coal price is obviously the big unknown, but given a lot of sales are on forward contracts, there is pretty good visibility that NHC will be selling coal at elevated prices for at least 6 months, worst case.

Longer term, based on supply constraints, there has to be strong possibility that coal prices will remain elevated for years. In fact all public commentary from NHC, WHC, YAL et al suggests that conditions are expected to remain strong in FY22 and FY23. If this turns out to be the case, NHS will generate +$3/share in cash over the next few years alone.

If you ignore the background ESG noise and can stomach a bit of volatility my basic thesis is that there is virtually zero downside at the current share price and a strong possibility of +100% returns (in dividends or share price appreciation) over the next couple of years (if coal prices stay strong).