olp informative post thread feb 07

nb1

The following posts go back to Feb '07 and will provide the newbies with some very good info.

Again a bit hard to read but worthwhile having a look.

No mre after this post as all old news - I'm looking for good new news - simple as that.




what is the best case scenario
Forum: ASX - By Stock (Go Back)
Code: APG - AUSTPAC RESOURCES NL (Google APG)
02/02/07 07:02 (View) Back Post Reply Options: Post OptionsPost New MessagePost ReplyAdd User to FavouritesAdd Stock to FavouritesEmail to a FriendIgnore MemberIgnore StockReport TOU Violation


FERGUSG
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To view the full post without scrolling please use the full width view or single post view Guys,

I've tried to do a basic, structured valuation on APG using the available info on the deals currently in front of us. To do this I’ve also taken a supply constrained view of the world, rather than a demand view as some other posters have.

From my understanding of the quarterly announcement and from discussion on this board we have the following ‘hard’ opportunities:

1. ERMS SR opportunity. Currently working with BHP to build a Demo plant with best case result from this is the building of an ERMS Commercialization plant (with DRI).

2. An EARS process opportunity with Steelmakers for recovery of iron and hydrochloric acid from waste products produced during the steel making process.

3. Gold Opportunity in China.

For the purposes of this valuation, I’ve discarded the Gold opportunity, because it’s too uncertain and I have no hard numbers to use.

Lets start with (1) ERMS SR opportunity with BHP.
Per the MDs presentation (pg 12 on 12/11/06); what we are hoping for with BHP is to build a commercialization plant of the following dimensions:
* 60k tpa ERMS SR
* 30k EARS Iron Pellets (DRI)

Per this presentation, the rough financials for this are:
Capital Cost = $80m & EBITDA p.a = approx $30m.

If we assume:
* 10 year earning perspective;
* discount rate of 11.25% (risk free rate =6% / market return = 11%);
* Yr 1 cash outflow = $80m (capital costs – assumes its takes 12 months to reach agreements and build the plant)
* Yr 2-10 cash inflow = $30m

The NPV of this is $76m (IRR = 35%). With 623m shares outstanding (Appendix 5b, pg 3 of qtrly), this is equivalent to 12c per share.

Looking at the EARS Process opportunity. Lets assume the objective is to set up a plant like the “BOO” EARS Plant example on the MDs presentation (page 14). Under this, from pg 14:
* Profit per tonne = $620
* 50t p/day
* 365 p/year
* Total profit p/a = $11.3m ($620 x 50 x 365)
* Capital costs: $6m

Again assuming:
* 10 year earning perspective;
* discount rate of 11.25% (risk free rate =6% / market return = 11%);
* Yr 1 cash outflow = $6m (capital costs – assumes its takes 12 months to reach agreements and build the plant)
* Yr 2-10 cash inflow = $11.3m (Profit p/a)

The NPV of this is $50.4m (IRR an impressive 189%). With 623m shares outstanding, this is equivalent to 8c per share.

Adding the sum of the parts, i.e. BHP sign up to commercialize the ERMS SR technology & (2) we get an EARS deal specified above, under this model the shares are worth 21c.

However, if we assume the probability of getting BHP deal to build a commercial size plant is currently 60% (my guess only) & the probably of getting an EARS deal is currently 25% (again my guess) the shares are worth 9.3c each (based on expected return; i.e. (60% x 12c) + (25% x 8c) = 9.3). If the BHP deal probably is 80% the share price is worth 11.8c.

These are my valuations only, using my guesses as inputs. If you have better info to inform the inputs, I’m happy to make adjustments or to share the model with you and you can do your own calc’s.

Final thing to note - obviously there is additional blue sky that can also be factored into the share price, such as GOLD and LARGE SCALE ERMS plants. This is currenty hard to value, but in my calc's if I factor some of this in, it puts the possible share price anywhere in the range of 13c to 69c.

The 69c is driven off a best case mode of getting the BHP commercial plant built, plus 2 other large scale ERMS plants built AND an EARS plant built, all within the next 3 years. Obviously this is a massive long shot, so I'm not suggesting that is likely (it is possible, just not likely) in the short term based on the information we CURRENTLY have available.

And yes Earnie, you guessed right in your earlier post, I am a banker, and I don't like speculation!!

Cheers from London
Ferg

02/02/07 07:44 (View) Back Post Reply Options: Post OptionsPost New MessagePost ReplyAdd User to FavouritesAdd Stock to FavouritesEmail to a FriendIgnore MemberIgnore StockReport TOU Violation


ENIGMA13
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To view the full post without scrolling please use the full width view or single post view Thanks for your insight Gergusg,

Whilst I am not a banker or the like it is really useful to have qualified inputs to what is an undefinable quantity

ie the price of APG. I do however, think your 11.8c is very conservative because I think there is a 50%+ chance of EARS getting off the ground and other steel companies interested in DRI must add further value.

Conservatively, the premium for the interest in the China gold mines must be at least 1-2c per share if only for the potential.

50%x8c(ears) + 80%x12c(erms) +1.5c (gold)=15c.

So on these calcs there is still value at 9.7c which is the real value of APG because ultimately that is what people are paying.

Once again thanks for your insight, I am learning all the time

02/02/07 07:57 (View) Back Post Reply Options: Post OptionsPost New MessagePost ReplyAdd User to FavouritesAdd Stock to FavouritesEmail to a FriendIgnore MemberIgnore StockReport TOU Violation


splain
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To view the full post without scrolling please use the full width view or single post view Ferg

thanks for setting out the potential $$ boundaries around some of APG's immediate prospects. That exercise underpins a view that APG is good value.

As you recognise though it is a conservative valuation - assuming one SR plant of small scale, one EARS plant of the scale flagged in the AGM presentation and ascribing no hard $$ for gold or for their agglomeration technology which will unlock the value of fine mineral sands around the world (and their own monster WIM150 deposit). Allowing one's imagination a bit of free reign comes up with a credible potential many times bigger.

As we all know, events are finally converging to a crunch for APG, and it will not be too long before we see all this potential value being realised.

02/02/07 08:24 (View) Back Post Reply Options: Post OptionsPost New MessagePost ReplyAdd User to FavouritesAdd Stock to FavouritesEmail to a FriendIgnore MemberIgnore StockReport TOU Violation


EARNIE
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To view the full post without scrolling please use the full width view or single post view Hi Ferg, well thought out post.

Your comment re blue sky if BHP were to go a bigger plant (than the 60ktpa used in your model) is a fair comment however I think most agree that BHP are not really interested in a 60ktpa plant. It is barely worth their while.

Unless the end result for BHP is to generate revenue of $150 -$250m pa I really do not think they would be that interested.

Of course to generate that they would need a plant around 4 times larger say 240 -250ktpa. One of the beauties of the APG ERMS/EARS is that the larger the plant the better the economics.

So without going into the calcs I will short cut and say ....your 60ktpa you say = 12c x 4 (say 240ktpa) = 48c per share and add another approx 9.6 ce per share due to economic upsize. That = 57.6 cents and this is the size BHP are more likely looking at.

With Ticor and APG in India Ticor were talking a plant of 200ktpa. Of course a 60 MAY be built first to reduce scale up risk but TOR were looking at 15ktpa then 200ktpa.

What about aagglloommeerraattiioonn? Seeing i can never remember how to spell it I will use doulbe letters all the way.

What is that worth to BHP , APG and the world.

Of course there is also China...no not gold. The fluid bed technology for the the sulphate market...its huge!!!

Albiet your post was well thought out I would have to guess you are mates with Mr T. (very conservative)

Nothing wrong with very conservative valuations but as you said you are a banker so I guess we can add 20% on straight away without even doing any sums :)

Cheers
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Good things come to those who wait!

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splain
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To view the full post without scrolling please use the full width view or single post view Hi EARNIE

you raised the question of what the agglomeration technology might be worth, so I trawled back through some thoughts I posted back in October last year where this got a bit of play on HC. I have copied bits of those posts below - but the bottom line is if the guys at APG really have cracked the agglomeration of the fine sands, then that alone would support a share price many times that of today.

Anyway, here is some of that previous stuff ....

***
Recent posts on APG have put some heady estimates of the likely price BHP might stump up to bring APG into its fold. Most of those have been derived from the value to BHP of acquiring (and denying it to its competitors) the exciting DRI technology that APG has developed. But while this technology appears to be the imperative driving BHP to take over this little Aussie battler, APG has a number of other assets we shouldn't forget about.

While it might not fall into the "must have" category , the WIM150 deposit in the Murray Basin, in particular, is now looking like it could be worth a bomb. Until recently, this was a monster but uncommercial deposit - its fine grain sands defeating past attempts to make a quid from it. But it appears the magicians at APG have succeeded in cracking the agglomeration technology needed to render this deposit commercial. What's more, mineral sands are a good fit with BHP's existing business as it is already a major player in the mineral sands industry (eg 50% share of Richards Bay in South Africa and its TiGen project in Mozambique).

WIM150 is one of the biggest (if not the) deposits in the world on a contained heavy minerals basis. Just how significant the WIM150 asset might be to BHP can be gathered by comparing the size of the resource against comparable deposits. For example, according to TZ Minerals International, WIM150 hosts a resource of over 1000 million tonnes, with contained zircon on 5.3 million tonnes. (It also has a core of 452 million tonnes of measured resource containing 5.9% heavy minerals). By comparison, the nearby Douglas mineral sands deposit hosts a resource of 614 million tonnes with contained zircon of 2.27 million tonnes. (This is the deposit that Iluka bought in 2002 via a $130m takeover of Basin Minerals). Similarly, the nearby Gingko and Jargarup deposits of BeMax host a resource of 205 and 30 million tonnes with contained zircon of 0.68 and 0.20 million tonnes respectively. (BeMax's market cap is about $250m).

Thus, the combined resources at Douglas and those of BeMax's deposits represent around 85% of what is present at WIM150 (and only 60% on a contained zircon basis). And a rough as guts proxy for their worth indicates a figure of around $380m. That very crude measure at least gives some indication of the scale of value that could potentially be attached to APG's WIM150.

***
I had a rough go at an estimate of what APG’s WIM150 alone might be worth a couple of days back [$380m], but it was late at night and I wasn't all that sharp. ...
Having thought about it a bit more, I realise I was a bit out. It is potentially worth a lot more than that!

The reasoning behind this conclusion goes like this:

The WIM150 deposit in the Murray Basin hosts around 1000 million tonnes of measured resource with about 5.9% of contained heavy mineral sands (about 5.3 million tonnes of which is zircon). The nearby Douglas deposit contains about 614 million tonnes of measured resource, and about 2.27 million tonnes of zircon. The Douglas deposit was ‘bought’ by Iluka in 2002 for $130 million (when it took over Basin Minerals for that amount). A crude extrapolation of that market transaction suggests that WIM150, with about 2.3 times more contained mineral sands, should therefore be worth about 2.3 times the price paid for Douglas. That suggests a ball-park value of about $300 million.

But since 2002, prices for mineral sands (ilmenite, leucoxene, rutile, zircon) have risen substantially. Zircon, for example, was around US$400 a tonne in mid-2002 but is now around US$750 (or 1.8 times higher). Adjusting the 2002 equivalent value for a simple increase in prices of this magnitude suggests WIM150 could have a market value of $300 million X 1.8 = $540 million. Given APG has approx 528 million shares on issue, this would suggest a market value for WIM150 of just over $1.00 a share.

Of course, the effect of higher prices means that a disproportionate share of any higher revenue falls straight to the bottom line, which in turn means the real value of WIM150 is potentially even more. For example, at $400 tonne for zircon a hypothetical margin might be $50 per tonne. If prices rise to $750, as costs would be largely constant, most of the higher price would end up as profit. Thus at $750 the margin might be $350 per tonne. In this simple case, the higher price would see profitability increase X7 even though prices have only increased by X1.8. Under this scenario it is reasonable to expect the underlying asset delivering the 7-fold increase in profit to increase commensurately in value (ie quite a lot more than just 1.8 times).

You can plug in your own discount, but if a multiple closer to the 7-fold profit impact is used rather than the simple 1.8 times price increase (say a multiple of 3) this would suggest the potential value of WIM150 might be closer to $300 million X 3 = $900 million. ...

In addition, the value of the agglomeration technology doesn't just stop at making WIM150 worth a motza. If the agglomeration technology developed by the wizards at APG works for WIM150, then it is reasonable to assume it has application on lots of other deposits around the world. That too has to be worth a bundle.

Of course, I admit there is a huge gap between potential value and actually realising anything like that value in the share price. However, this sort of exercise for just the WIM150 asset gives an idea of the enormous upside residing in APG.

***
The WIM150 deposit is a monster in size, but the fine grained nature of the contained sands has meant it has defeated past attempts to commercialise it. So yes, X7 or X3 or X1.8 times zero is indeed zero.

But as I noted, if the guys at APG really have cracked the agglomeration technology then that will allow the deposit to be treated commercially. If so, we enter a whole new ball game as the deposit would then be worth a motza.

History is littered with new technologies that have revolutionised the economics of mining and mineral processing. Just look at flotation technology (an Australian invention too) that allowed the profitable treatment of ore bodies once cast aside as unprofitable, or heap leaching that transformed the economics of processing some ores.

If APG's agglomeration technology is as good as it is rumoured to be, it will similarly revolutionise the economics of fine grained mineral sand deposits.

Whether this is fully reflected in APG's share price I will leave up to Mr Market to decide. In the meantime, I am happy to be sitting on my pile of APG shares and contemplating a rosy future.








02/02/07 09:15 (View) Back Post Reply Options: Post OptionsPost New MessagePost ReplyAdd User to FavouritesAdd Stock to FavouritesEmail to a FriendIgnore MemberIgnore StockReport TOU Violation


Seik
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To view the full post without scrolling please use the full width view or single post view Excellent post and thank you for effort. I'll spend some time on your figures on the weekend and if you don't
mind see if I can with your help, interpret how the Future Value/Present value works for some on this site
who go cross eyed.

Particualrly understanding how the IRR factors in the risk premium that is associated with speccy's would I
think help many get a handle on how the experts value risk into projects. I'd also like to see how close your constrained view matches my demand view.

Cheers

Seik

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nb1
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To view the full post without scrolling please use the full width view or single post view hi ferg
ive been sitting here all day wondering


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nb1
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To view the full post without scrolling please use the full width view or single post view Hi ferg
Ive been sitting here all day contemplating
WHY


02/02/07 16:56 (View) Back Post Reply Options: Post OptionsPost New MessagePost ReplyAdd User to FavouritesAdd Stock to FavouritesEmail to a FriendIgnore MemberIgnore StockReport TOU Violation


nb1
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To view the full post without scrolling please use the full width view or single post view COMPUUTORS#%*&^%$#@ I'LL TRY AGAIN
Hi ferg
Ive been sitting here all day contemplating
WHY
1. would a banker bother doing calculations on a plant that Bhp only regards as a demonstration plant rather than the size BHP would actually build.
2.would a banker disregard goldfields in china that most gold miners would give their eye teeth to get their hands on.With so many similarities to Sino golg
3. would a banker assume only one plant will be built in the next 10 years
4. would a banker assume that only one steel company or miner is interested in this technology when it is aapplicable to 1000s of steel coys world wide
5. would a banker assume all the other steel companies are going to sit back and let one steel company aquire this technology for its sole use.without giving a yelp.
6.would a banker not take into account the number of licences that will be sort when BHP has aleady indicated an interest in a licence for all south africia
7. would a banker disregard posts from guys like tweekleberry and seik who really know what they are talking about.(dont think macquarie bank would have missed these opportunities)

UNLESS
ferg this does not in anyway relate to you just hypotheses and speculation which I know you hate

Suppose a banker had an interest in suppressing the share price for a large corporate client just for the time being.

Never mind ferg using your figures and leaving out the gold and other things you seem to have missed and assuming only 1000 of interested and that those coys only want to build a demonstration size plant
lets see now
11c*1000=$110/share now thats more realistic don't you think three cheers for ferg youve done good.
by the way ferg does your post eminate from England.Just curious
not advice dyo research I'm gobsmacked

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flevine
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To view the full post without scrolling please use the full width view or single post view Hi nb1

Yes, Fergs figures did look very conservative to me but bankers are not known for taking ANY risks are they. Just try and get a loan without an asset like a house etc. If u had 2 mil APG shares and 2 mil TLS shares they would say u don't fit into their criteria for lending lol. They are an ultra conservative lot and for the banker to even consider doing an analysis on APG shows u what we may be looking at here. Big things indeed.

02/02/07 17:16 (View) Back Post Reply Options: Post OptionsPost New MessagePost ReplyAdd User to FavouritesAdd Stock to FavouritesEmail to a FriendIgnore MemberIgnore StockReport TOU Violation


EARNIE
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To view the full post without scrolling please use the full width view or single post view Hi Ferg.


WHICH BANK :)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Good things come to those who wait!

02/02/07 20:03 (View) Back Post Reply Options: Post OptionsPost New MessagePost ReplyAdd User to FavouritesAdd Stock to FavouritesEmail to a FriendIgnore MemberIgnore StockReport TOU Violation


FERGUSG
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To view the full post without scrolling please use the full width view or single post view I currently consult to big banks in London (hence my erratic postings) on business strategy, so for confidentality reasons won't give you the name. Needless to say, I don't cover equities.

NB1 - I agree, there's plenty of blue sky...the problem I have is trying to accurately value it and predict likelihood for all of those things occurring. I'll try to respond to some more of your questions (assuming they weren't retorical) over the weekend.

Btw - I'm not a doubter of APG, far from it, having held for close to 7 years now...just trying to 'dollarize' the potential systematically and rationally; in what is sometimes (often) an irrational market.

Ferg

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tewkleberry
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To view the full post without scrolling please use the full width view or single post view Hi Ferg...

Had a chuckle reading your last post (2002)...

"...The only thing Seven o', is that almost an exact copy of this report has been produced each qtr for the last 2 years I have invested in this stock.

I am getting the feeling, as with many others it would seem, that will be another great company that doesn't realise its potential.

You have to be able to play with the big boys in this game, but it seems the big boys don't want to touch APG until its too weak to defend itself.

That said, I can't bring myself to sell. They might be news yet and I can still afford to lose what I've got (there's not that much left eh?)."

Hopefully things are a little different in 2007 compared to 2002. The SP back then was 8 cents and heading south. 2007...we're in the same ballpark, but heading north. It helps having some "big boys" now wanting to touch APG (sorry.... sounding a little lewd here!)

I'll have to sit down and digest your assumptions. Good to have your input.

02/02/07 22:03 (View) Back Post Reply Options: Post OptionsPost New MessagePost ReplyAdd User to FavouritesAdd Stock to FavouritesEmail to a FriendIgnore MemberIgnore StockReport TOU Violation


tewkleberry
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To view the full post without scrolling please use the full width view or single post view Hi Ferg.... you are being conservative, but that's OK for me. The crux seems to be in the probability of each of the processes coming to commercial fruition. Also, the probability that 1 or 10 or 50 plants using each of the processes.

You didn't consider the likelihood of a stand alone APG DRI plant. This is where the big tonnes are. Total DRI production capacity is now about 57 million tonnes per annum. Midrex Technologies has the lion's share of this (63%), This is a gas based process. According to Midrex last year....

"...An extraordinary increase in the price of natural gas in North America closed all gas based capacity in the United States and Canada. By November the wholesale price of gas in the US was over $15 per million Btu’s, approximately eight times the level it had been at in the mid-1990’s. Due to this price increase, one of the three plants at Lazaro Cardenas in Mexico was shuttered for the same reason"

This has to bode well for processes that can utilize competitive fuel types....eg. APG

The figures that you use are those that are for single concept plants. I would imagine that for each subsequent plant, one needs to apply a probability of each coming to fruition and add them all together, then convert to a share value. The probability is the hard bit and the part that divides the "true believers" and the bankers.

It will be interesting to see refining of the model as more info comes to light.

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hummms
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Hi all,
A little bit of input from Canada.....where I did NOT view the Tar Sands projects that the APG technology can sucessfully treat to produce the iron pellet feed stock for DRI.
Several of the ex ILU directers have relocated to canada.....they know what APG can do.....Titanium Corp of Canada has huge research budgets and it is my guess that they will use APG technology in their production trains.
I think Ferg is right not to attibute big sums to the DRI process because it is only a (valuable ) preconditioner for the RIO briquette plants.......it is not a complete pathway in itself.
I am a holder of 5 years now.....I think the next year will be interesting.

03/02/07 05:15 (View) Back Post Reply Options: Post OptionsPost New MessagePost ReplyAdd User to FavouritesAdd Stock to FavouritesEmail to a FriendIgnore MemberIgnore StockReport TOU Violation


FERGUSG
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To view the full post without scrolling please use the full width view or single post view Forgot in my last post that I'm off skiing for a week, so won't be adding my 2c worth for a while.

If I am lucky, maybe we'll have some news on BHP while I'm away...but I wont hold my breath.

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EARNIE
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To view the full post without scrolling please use the full width view or single post view Ferg,

can you please leave your 2c worth before you go then we will be 11.5 :)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Good things come to those who wait!

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ENIGMA13
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To view the full post without scrolling please use the full width view or single post view The numbers from Wilson HTM 3 years ago are worth having a look at and drawing some comparison with today. Back then there was no BHP, DRI was limited (no agglomeration) and based on a 30,000 tpa ERMS SR plant they had a BASE valuation of 10c assuming a capital raising and fully diluted for 728.4million shares.
If APG was to expand the plant to 90,000tpa it would increase the valuation to 30c/share. (the total cost of such a plant would be about $107million) and would return APG about $138million pa.

At the time ILU was considering options to build 100,000tpa with a 10% licence fee to APG. WIlson estimates this to be worth $22m pa to APG.

"APG has ample scope for adding to our base valuation of $0.10/share which considers the 30,000 tpa SR plant, through options to build further SR plants."

I know these numbers are 3 years old but it may be a useful exercise to plug in what we know today for a comparison. (The numbers for the DRI should be up significantly)

I ask that those with accounting skills give it go and report back on HC. The report is on the company website.
http://www.austpacresources.com/pdfs/brokers/Wilson%20HTM%20Report%201April04.pdf

One last point. Back then there was no 20% interest in 4 chinese gold mines........hmmmm


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tewkleberry
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To view the full post without scrolling please use the full width view or single post view Hi Hummmmmmms..

Why is the DRI product only suitable for briquetting? I thought it was sufficiently metallized for direct substitution for scrap in EAF's. Is the particle size or strength not high enough?

London ... Canada .... small world these days

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Seik
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To view the full post without scrolling please use the full width view or single post view Re-reading this thread it occurs to me that we have our first hint at the calculations a predator would be making in determining the value of APG.

Such a predator would be looking at the projects without factoring in the risks the projects wouldn't go ahead since if it bought the company it would know the projects would be built.

So a 60k tpa ERMS plant is worth 12 cents at 35% return pa (IRR)
One 50 tonne per day EARS/DRI plant is 8c at 189% return pa (got to be worth more than that with such a return)

That's 20c if the predator was thinking small. Is a 240k tpa plant therefore really worth 24c alone and with worldwide connections it's got to think of at least 10 EARS/DRI plants. (Um ... thats a dollar+).

With those sort of conservative figures from Fergus applied to their own plans for multiple plants an offer now of even 30c would be stealing!

Seik

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tewkleberry
Post #: 1538314
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To view the full post without scrolling please use the full width view or single post view This emphasizes the importance of a demonstration plant to the company using equipment of the type expected in a larger scale. When such a plant is built, it answers most of the risk questions. It also provides hard data for capital and production costs for larger plants and shows how the APG technology pans out against competing technology (where it exists).

A reasonable size demo plant is critical, because it establishes both probability of success AND demonstrates the volume of the future market for the technology.

Both of these assumptions are critical in Ferg's calcs and make the difference between, say, SP=20 cents or less (is the probability currently 60%, 5% or 95%???) and SP= many dollars (probability of success = 99% times many ERMS and EARS and DRI).



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williamlllll
Post #: 1538368
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There is one factor Ferus has not shown. - Market sentiment.There are three types of people out there.
Those who make the market move ( market manipulation - and don't tell me it does not happen)
Those who follow behind them ( be it up or down)
Those like me and many others , who sit on their holding and wait.
If there were to be an announcement of a gold find in China then all Fergus' calculations go out the window.Don't get me wrong , I appreciate what he and Seik et al are doing , I just believe the market moves on more than technical analysis alone. Remember the " Witch of Wall Street"


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bedrock
Post #: 1538383
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To view the full post without scrolling please use the full width view or single post view has drilling stated if not when thanks bedrock

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flevine
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To view the full post without scrolling please use the full width view or single post view Hi Will

Fear and greed play a role as well. And you never seem to get fair value, the price is either too high or too low. If anyone thinks APG has received a proper valuation then I think they are mistaken. The China gold joint venture by my calculations is not factored into the share price and even though no economical gold has been discovered yet, going on the Sino Gold project in the Golden Triangle of China, we should have realised a 1 or 2 cent rise when the initial joint venture deal was announced. However, the share price retreated. Going on the potential value of this important joint venture deal, the 1 or 2 cent valuations is way to low. There are some reports where a valuation of such a deal in this very prospective gold region is in the vicinity of multiples of 100 or more to 1. Have a look at Sino Gold recent share price and look at the steady and very bullish increase in the share price. Makes me think APG has been way undervalued on this joint venture deal alone.

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flevine
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To view the full post without scrolling please use the full width view or single post view The answer to that bedrock is short and sweet: no news yet.

I like the compact nature of your post though lol.

Cheers

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ENIGMA13
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To view the full post without scrolling please use the full width view or single post view They cannot start drilling until all the appropriate licencses are complete. The quarterly suggests that these are close and will be completed this quarter. I would envisage that drillign would start ASAP after that. I think we will probably be up to six months before any real development on the gold front (ie drilling reports)

Whilst SGX story is a good one dont forget APG only has a 20% interest in this exploration. (but then again APG doesnt have a market cap of about $900 mill.

oh to dream...20% of $900mill =$180mill which is about 30c a share WITHOUT the ERMS!!!!




As I stated this is the last post of old threads.

JAWSY:)