The logic in that post "seems" reasonable, but I think it might...

The logic in that post "seems" reasonable, but I think it might be flawed.

I'm not sure where the permeability quoted is from (possibly maps that were created prior to the drilling in the area?) but I don't think anyone knows the perm, which is why appraisal wells are needed. Not to mention that 0.1md isn't prohibitively low anyway (look at some of the shale plays that work in the US despite way lower perms), and I'd be surprised if it wasn't lower.

There are a whole heap of reasons that mud gas levels would vary along the horizontal section of a well ("only half the well has high gas saturation"). It might be that has saturations are high, but the formation is tighter (it looks like the mud gas levels are pretty well correlated with the gamma ray log in the figure OMA have shared previously), or it might just that they drilled it more overbalanced to ensure hole stability, so less gas flowed into the well through that section.

Finally, the suggestion that OMA need to drill a longer well is... interesting? The aim isn't to get a commercial flow rate from this well. The aim is find out if the flow rate from a short horizontal section suggests it would be possible to produce commercially using (possibly longer) horizontal wells, and to gather data that will further optimise any well/frac design. If OMA have determined that an 800m section needs to produce 2-3mmscf/d to be interesting, then a longer section would need to produce even more, because it's the production per drilled length/frac stage that counts. If OMA had drilled a longer well, they would likely also be looking for a higher rate, and based on that posters logic would need to drill an even longer well to achieve that higher rate, and so on, and so on! Drilling a longer appraisal well would likely just cost more money for the same info. The people running the show know what they are up to.

Thats not to say that the well will be a success (honestly, it probably won't, most appraisal wells aren't), just that the logic being applied to get to that conclusion is pretty ropey!