The addressable market in the US is more likely around 1000 to 1500 patients in terms of T315I alone. You need to take the incidence of the disease and multiply it by the average life expectancy of the patient. Then, you need to add a realistic figure for off-label sales. About a third of Gleevec sales off-labels. So, doing a rough calculation - US60K a year X 1000 patients x 1.5 to factor in off label sales and you get an addressable market of about US$90 million pa. Now, only 80% of patients respond to Omapro, but, of course, the patients who do respond are living longer and, as such, the prevalence of the disease is growing at a faster rate. Assume, 50% of revenue will turn into profit, $US45 million, and multiple by a suitable PE, 20-30 times for a company of this nature, and the near term prospects for the US look near enough to a US$ billion company.
Also, royalty rates for the Hospira deal you have mentioned are low. They are more likely in the neighborhood of 40-50% (remember, the margins on the drug are huge and Chemgenex will capture most of them because they own the drug).
Anyway, you should go back and concentrate on Avantogen? It seems to be a real player.
Cheers bw
CXS Price at posting:
68.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
