OMH - Strong Sell, page-31

Half yearly report due in the next couple of weeks.
I thought it's worth making a guesstimate for the NPAT.
Here's my calculation from available data for the two main drivers viz. Mining and smelting:
Mining
Q1 sales: 165162 mt
C1 costs: 3.71USDdmtu
Profit margin:0.89USD dmtu
Q1 Gross profit : 14.6m USD or $21m AUD
Q2 sales : 184395 mt
C1 costs: 3.07 USD
Profit margin: 1.53USD dmtu
Q2 Gross profit: 28m USD or 40m AUD
Total H1 mining EBIT 61m AUD
Less 18m AUD tax
NPAT = 43M AUD

Dividend from Tshipi = 15M AUD

Smelting
H1 sales: 115,501mt Fesi and 112,957 SiMn
Avg sale price 1170 USD and 1150 USD resp.
Cost of sales 1000USD and 950 USD resp.
Net Profit $19.8m USD and 22.6m USD = 42.4mUSD
H1 smelting NPAT = $60m AUD
OMH share = 75% = 45m AUD

Assumed cost savings by refinancing $500m AUD OMH loan from 8% to 5% hence interest charge = 13m AUD

Therefore total H1 NPAT = 43 +15+45 -13 =90m AUD = 24cents per share on an annualised basis

Now to the bigger geopolitical picture:
China is losing the trade war. Cracks are definitely appearing. It's decelerating rapidly
The USSR (like China) appeared invincible until it didn't.

Two factors were paramount to the collapse of the USSR
1. The uprising in Poland instigated by Lech Walesa and Pope John Paul
2. Ronald Reagan

The two similar factors are appearing in China
1. The erupting volcano in Hong Kong led by evangelicals
2. Trump

China is hamstrung as it cannot move against the protesters in HK for fear of forever losing Taiwan.
China will have to divert massive resources from propping up it's loss making SOE's to populist measures to contain its population.
Chinese smelters produce 80% of the world's ferro alloys. Without subsidies the smelters grind to a halt and 80% of the world's production taken out.

This baby can fly.