on goldman's bearish forecast fy15 eps=25.3

Looking forward 12 months, using Goldman's (i.e. the most bearish!) forecast.

Goldman Sachs forecast of Iron Ore and (AUDUSD) for FY15 ...

Source multiple media reports...
1H15 = $US105 (0.85) = $AUD123.50
2H15 = $US100 (0.82) = $AUD122
3H15 = $US80 (0.80) = $AUD100
4H15 = $US80 (0.80) = $AUD100

FY15 = $US91 (0.82) = $AUD111

Question : What would ARI report for FY15?

Assumes...

Iron Ore Prod = 13Mt, all in cost/t = $70, grade = 59.3%

Steel EBIT +$10 / $0.01 fall in AUDUSD (As guided)

Cash Capex
Mining = $198 (100% DA)
Mining Consumerables = $60m (DA = $51 ie Canada Expansion)
Steel & Recycling = $55 (50% DA)
Total Cash Capex = $313m

DA = $358m

Dividend = 0.12 unfranked (Yield 13%),
Tax Rate = 23%

Dividend

Answer : EPS = 25.3 (P/E = 3.8)
NPAT = $344m
EBIT = $544m
EBITDA = $902m
Net Debt = $1713m
Gearing = 32%
EBITDA Interest cover = 9.3
Leverage ratio = 1.9
Payout Ratio = 47% (Div = 0.12)

A spectacular FY15 if Goldman's bearish forecast becomes a reality!