Looking forward 12 months, using Goldman's (i.e. the most...

Looking forward 12 months, using Goldman's (i.e. the most bearish!) forecast.

Goldman Sachs forecast of Iron Ore and (AUDUSD) for FY15 ...

Source multiple media reports...
1H15 = $US105 (0.85) = $AUD123.50
2H15 = $US100 (0.82) = $AUD122
3H15 = $US80 (0.80) = $AUD100
4H15 = $US80 (0.80) = $AUD100

FY15 = $US91 (0.82) = $AUD111

Question : What would ARI report for FY15?

Assumes...

Iron Ore Prod = 13Mt, all in cost/t = $70, grade = 59.3%

Steel EBIT +$10 / $0.01 fall in AUDUSD (As guided)

Cash Capex
Mining = $198 (100% DA)
Mining Consumerables = $60m (DA = $51 ie Canada Expansion)
Steel & Recycling = $55 (50% DA)
Total Cash Capex = $313m

DA = $358m

Dividend = 0.12 unfranked (Yield 13%),
Tax Rate = 23%

Dividend

Answer : EPS = 25.3 (P/E = 3.8)
NPAT = $344m
EBIT = $544m
EBITDA = $902m
Net Debt = $1713m
Gearing = 32%
EBITDA Interest cover = 9.3
Leverage ratio = 1.9
Payout Ratio = 47% (Div = 0.12)

A spectacular FY15 if Goldman's bearish forecast becomes a reality!