on goldman's bearish forecast fy15 eps=25.3, page-3

Hi fitnfam,

I don't think that you are seeing things correctly...

Yes, ARI does provide all in costs.

You get them by looking at the 1H14 results.

ie (Revenue - EBITDA) / Tonnes so (877-423)/6.32 = $72

As FOB is a $1 lower and Royalties are lower $1 = $70 /t

In my estimates I have Cash Capex = DA ($198 or $15/t) for Mining. This is the sustaining capex.

Comment "US$105/ton is for 63%FE" ??? I assume you meant 62%FE, not sure what $US105 is about? That is only for 1Q15, the average for the year is $US91 and audusd = 0.80. My post has a typo "H" instead of "Q"

Correction
1Q15 = $US105 (0.85) = $AUD123.50
2Q15 = $US100 (0.82) = $AUD122
3Q15 = $US80 (0.80) = $AUD100
4Q15 = $US80 (0.80) = $AUD100

FY15 = $US91 (0.82) = $AUD111

Anyway, looking again at 1H14, ARI ships a grade of 59.3%

ARI's Realised CFR / Benchmark Spot Avg * 62% = Grade

139 / 145 * 62% = 59.3%

Arrium's grade is VERY high! Your comments about lower grade Ore are correct in terms of pricing but ARI has HIGH grade Ore at over 59%+!

Read the Quarterly Prod Reports (1Q14 and 2Q14)...