The outlook for the copper market looks increasingly positive as supply disruptions hit just as demand started to improve. The market continues to discount the fall in inventories this year, with LME stocks down 56% to 161,050 tonnes. This ambivalence seems to be driven by a view that hidden stocks in China will be leaked onto the international market as the inventory financing scandal persists. Even when Chinese bonded material is taken into consideration, stocks are at their lowest levels since early 2012. With imports picking up in September, these concerns appear unwarranted. More so, supply constraints are starting to rear their head again. Las Bambas has been delayed (and won’t start until Q1 2016), Oyu Tolgoi will miss its 2014 guidance by 10kt, while Grasberg struggles with a strike action
tax loss selling from overseas punters ..will end in late December .. then ASX will do better in Jan
Aud will be crushed by Jan 2015 too ... which adds to AUD earnings from Copper sales in USD
TGS Price at posting:
18.2¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
