I am in the process of putting what I consider the 3 major...

I am in the process of putting what I consider the 3 major US/global cycles on a chart.

I have yet to put Armstrong's model on there which is critical.

We need to remember that a 40 year and as some suggest a 30 year cycle top is due around 2010.

For our market there is also a 62 month cycle that had a possible peak last month equivalent to Sep 1987.

So it is still a work in progress and is not as precise as analogues out there as I am just working on a monthly basis and so it doesn't show when in the month turns occur and does not show every nuance.

The first chart is 1980 to 2020 or so and looks unimpressive.

The second is 2005-2014 inclusive and looks a little bit more informative.

When I have Armstrong's model on there it will give a better picture and I will probaly do one with our 62 month cycle and put on actual prices so far.

Yes, there are plenty of other minor cycles but I am trying to just give the big picture.

I could have tried to blend the cycles into one but seeing the individual turns, I feel is more beneficial.

Even with this information you can see that from late next year into 2012 it looks pretty sad.