just sitting here pondering the future of MZI as we appear to be on the cusp of breaking into 4c+ territory.
first thought, options.
it was interesting to see over 4 million options exercised yesterday, sure management were very happy to receive the $108k!
this parcel was the exact amount the number 18 shareholder in the recent annual report held, National Nominees Limited. that doesnt tell us much though.
why have they jumped so early. it is quite possible that those shares could have been sold today, didnt want to try and sell 4.2 million options so converted them to trade in the more liquid heads market. doesnt really matter, MZI have the cash.
the remaining 366 million options if all converted would bring in an additional $9.165 million, sure management would love to see all of these converted, the sooner the better.
some of the larger option holders will have no chance of trading the options so as long as the feasibility study shows a profitable future for MZI, could very well see these converted shortly.
we then look at unlisted options. 30 million options to be exercised at 4c, an additional $1.2 million and 5 million options at 7.5c, a further $375k
i wonder at what point management will exercise those options.
by December 2013 on our current path, it is highly likely we will have an additional $10.165 million in cash.
we can also expect a possible $6.25 million from an issue of shares to Doral Resources (Iwatani corporation of Japan)
so in the near future from conversion of options and issuing shares to Doral, MZI can look forward to $16.4 million coming into the coffers.
this is not certain yet and will be by no means enough to get this project up and running. there are still 2 more shipments to be made from Lethbridge which by back of envelope calculations will bring in a further $19-20 million in revenue less production costs.
at this point though, MZI will either need to borrow money or issue more shares, really not sure how managment will approach this.
looking at companies associated with MZI, we have an offtake ppartner that just increased their holdings along with Xiang Lin,these guys hold almost 20% of stock. we then have a possible 12% shareholder in Doral Resources, a private company that is owned by Iwatani Corporation, another of our off take partners is DuPont, think most people have heard of them. these are all heavy hitters with pretty deep pockets. wouldnt suprise if a private placement was made to one of these 3 companies.
then we have the fly in the ointment so to speak, Stirling Resources or Decometal GMBH. think they have made their stance fairly clear, by trying to vote down every resolution at the latest meeting, i get the distinct feeling they want MZI for themselves.
if Doral and Tricoastal have enough shares though, and as Stirlings % of stock owned decreases, their impact will slowly fade.
right now, imho i see Stirling Resources as the stumbling block to MZI being taken over. i wonder what price will be enough for them to jump ship??
on top of all this, MZI have Kilimaraka in their back pocket, will be interesting to see the progress they make here in the next year.
on a technical basis, SP still sitting firmly in the upwards channel, cup and handle target of 4.3c "seems" a mere formality, after that has been reached, not really sure on a potential future target? last 3 days have created close to a 3 white soldiers pattern, a bullish pattern normally after a period of consolidation ( just over 1 week at 3.4c), certainly looks good for the short term. will be interesting to see how SP reacts when feasiility study is released, has some of the good news being priced in already? using possible projected revenue and expenses and looking at sector, market and Iluka PE, imho SP increase still has plenty left in the tank.
this post is just my opinion, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE, DYOR!!
MZI Price at posting:
3.9¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held