..."A consensus at the conference – which will upset the many doomsters who believe the Red Army is poised to roll up the Ukraine – is the invasion remains a massive Albatross around Putin’s neck. It will remain a personal humiliation for the long-term. It’s important to understand that Putin can’t move on till he has put all this behind him:The Special Military Operation clearly failed in its objective of a swift, clinical removal of the Kyiv government – if anything it strengthened it.It’s cost hundreds of thousands of casualties, unravelling long-established myths about Russian military superiority and the strength of the “Steamroller”. Russia’s military credibility has been battered.Massive corruption, flawed tactics, and the inbuilt denial of initiative have been exposed from top to bottom across the Russian forces – severely limiting command and control options, and at one stage leaving Russian mercenary forces, The Wagner Group, as the only reliable formed force. Missiles and drone-tech have broken the back of the Russian Airforce, made its state-of-the-art tanks questionable, left its helicopter forces obsolete (far too dangerous to use near the front line), seen the Black Sea Fleet largely sunk, and exposed serious logistical and supply chain failures.Whatever they claim about a wartime economy, the Russians are now dependent on North Korea – at the far end of the Trans-Siberia express for artillery shells and other supplies, and on Iran for Drones.The war is now a stalemate. If Ukraine wasn’t so handicapped by the non-delivery of promised Western arms, Russia would not be slowly winning back ground. (Interesting story in the NYT this morning: a well-known pro-war Russian Military Blogger, Andrei Morozow, took the proverbial tumble out an open window (found shot) after he posted the Russian capture of Avdiivka cost 16,000 men and 300 tanks, while the Ukrainians retreated from encirclement intact with losses of a few hundred.) Thus far, Russia has made, effectively and at a massive cost, just about every mistake it would be possible to make. That may not matter – standard Russian operating procedure (The Japan War in 1905, WW1, The Winter-War in Finland, WW2, and Afghanistan) is to start any war badly, absorb losses, slowly learn lessons, and come back all-in with scant regard to casualties or costs. The Ukraine War has been bloody and fruitless thus far for both sides – it could get dramatically worse, raising the pressure on the West to force a settlement. Yet, the key takeaway for power brokers is:The only way Putin can mitigate the embarrassment of the Ukraine War is a win, on the battlefield or at the conference table. What happens next?:Europe sees the signals. Even if Trump loses in November, Europe’s reliance on the US for military defence is now done. Trump conclusively shattered that last week in a comment that could have been designed to destabilise the conference – inviting Putin to attack any nation that didn’t pay for US defence. NATO will change. Europe is clear it has to stand on its own European legs. That means significant rearmament. Unity and alignment will become the critical themes that will either make or break Europe over the coming decade. Putin is a reminder from history that could catalyse a reawakening of Europe. Everyone will agree it is necessary. Europe’s fractured tribes will have to grow up or else no one will agree on who, what and how. Trump is a factor in his own right. We are still 9 months from the US Election, but the reality is Trump’s hand is already on the joystick via his capture of the Republicans and Congress. The US election will have a significant impact on ending the war. We all understand Trump is all about the Art of the Deal. The fact Putin is a murderous, kleptocratic bully and dictator who has aligned his nation with all the enemies of freedom, democracy, and the West, (Iran, North Korea, Syria and now sits as China’s rabid dog) has rather escaped Mr Trump – who sees the issue in purely what has the US to gain, not what the West has to lose. What he understands is the need to do a deal with Putin – and how to force the Republican party to do his bidding to achieve that deal.Putin will be delighted. A deal that gives his territory and/or guarantees works.Trump’s ego needs the deal even if that means favouring Putin – something a little like Czechoslovakia in 1938. Rewarding Putin’s aggressions with territorial gains in Ukraine will further widen, perhaps fatally break, the already torn US/Europe alliance, and widen the sense the US no longer holds hegemony in Europe. It won’t negate Putin’s view, expressed on the embarrassing Tucker Carlson Moscow show, that Ukraine historically is part of Russia. It won’t stop Putin.Russia will insist that sanctions are lifted – which again will be unacceptable to many in Europe, again clearly rewarding Putin for his aggression. Russia is currently selling oil to India and China at less than half-price. Putting Russian oil back on the market (10 million bpd) will crash prices – great for cutting global energy costs and reflating Europe’s struggling economy. It may mean Russians in the Gulf find themselves less welcome – although it will be great for Russian economic recovery, or a round of new yachts for the kleptocracy...."
