The way i see it - there are three scenarios here (and hence the wide different in broker prices)
SCN 1: net sales decline and Axiron can maintain share in the face of generics - this is the 60-70c camp
SCN 2: hold net sales / share of market but don't make any future milestone payments - this is the $1-$1.50 camp
SCN 3: net sales grows based on overall market growth combined with some modest share growth and hence the $50m milestone is hit in 2015 calendar year - this is the $2 + camp
I'm in the SCN 3 camp... days like today are just volatility driven by the speculators and weak holders... I don't see any new - news in the market at this point and if anything the FDA pack is mildly positive in my opinion. The FDA was never going to say - this drug is wonderful and everyone should take it - but more importantly it didn't say we believe this drug will kill you either.
What they are asking the expert panel is if further studies are required - you would probably say they will come back with yes - But, the key here is who will do them and who will bear the cost? Outside that is really a non issue in my opinion... any crazy talk at this point that the market for testosterone is going to collapse is crap at this stage - the FDA isn't going to do anything without strong research evidence to support such a decision.
I watch with interest to see how this plays out.
Regards,
mita
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